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Florida State vs Georgia Tech, College Football Week 0 – An undefeated Florida State got shafted from the college football playoff last season, but they should still be strong 2024. After a good season at Oregon State, QB DJ Uiagalelei transfers in to take over the offense. Studs like edge rusher Patrick Payton should sustain an excellent defense from last season.
Florida State opens the season in Dublin, Ireland against ACC rival Georgia Tech. QB Haynes King returns to lead the Georgia Tech offense that should be solid. However, the defense will rely on transfers to hopefully improve a unit that struggled last season (99th in my adjusted success rate).
My member college football numbers, which uses market data as well as models based on past seasons, have Florida State by 14.3 points over Georgia Tech, and I like the Seminoles -11.5. The game kicks off at noon Eastern on Saturday, August 24.
NFL predictions – These predictions come from market win totals. Based on data from Circa, I back out a rating for each team, which depends on schedule. Here is a sample of predictions based on these ratings:
- Detroit will beat Los Angeles Rams by 5.3 points at home. Detroit has moved from 6th when I ran these numbers in July up to 4th now. Based on a win total of 10.5 with -120 to go over, the market have moved the Lions into contender status.
- Cleveland will beat Dallas by 0.7 points at home. Dallas had an excellent 12-5 record last season but then got thumped at home in the playoffs by Green Bay. The market numbers have Dallas at 10th.
Members of The Power Rank get access to all of my NFL and college football predictions.
Colorado Buffaloes – On The Football Analytics Show, Bill Connelly of ESPN was hesitant about a break through for Colorado in 2024. After ending the season on a 1-8 run, coach Deion Sanders replaced most of his roster again.
Bill acknowledged that Colorado should be better on both the offensive and defensive line. And perhaps QB Shadeur Sanders and CB/WR Travis Hunter are both top 5 NFL draft picks like their coach believes. However, Colorado is 60th in Bill’s preseason SP+ rankings.
Bill is excited about a Big 12 conference in which possibly 10 teams could win the conference. However, Colorado is not one of those teams. Bill also talked about Georgia, Wisconsin, Texas A&M and Jalen Milroe in his annual, must listen appearance on The Football Analytics Show.
Yards per route run – This has become a popular metric for wide receivers, as using number of routes run instead of targets or receptions captures how often a receiver gets open. However, Bill Barnwell of ESPN notes that yards per route run (YPPR) depends on the numbers of wide receivers in formation.
- 2.11 YPPR with two WRs on the field.
- 1.45 YPPR with three WRs on the field.
After adjustments for formation, he found that Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both went up in the rankings. The Los Angeles Rams run more three WR sets, which tends to deflate their numbers.
Check out this thread from Bill Barnwell for data other wide receiver.
Humor – Thirteen seconds that will make you laugh.
Quick note: It was my intention to release The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season this week. This audio product contains two deep dive stories into analytics with betting applications. Think John Oliver with a math Ph.D.
While the audiobook has been approved (good decision not into the details of Robert Kraft’s visit to the massage parlor), I am waiting for it get distributed to platforms like Spotify. I’ll send you an email when this happens.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
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