Looking for sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
WNBA player prop – For the past two seasons, Unabated has made women’s basketball player projections. Led by former top daily fantasy player Galin Dragiev, this team combines quantitative methods with a close tracking of WNBA news.
This morning, the Unabated team projects 10.8 points for Los Angeles Sparks guard Aari McDonald. She has played fewer minutes in the past few games with the improved health of Layshia Clarendon. There is value in Aari McDonald under 12.5, -120 at DraftKings (3:30pm Eastern tip off).
Through July 7 of this season, the release of these projections to top level Concierge members is up over 85 units. Even though Premium Unabated members get the projections an hour later, the projections are still up over 46 units. Check out more about the Concierge and Premium services at Unabated.
Euro, Copa America finals – In my ongoing attempt to make more accurate sports predictions, I’ve been blending goal and xG based calculations (both of which get adjusted for opponent with my algorithm).
The goal based calculations use more matches. While xG (expected goals) should give a more accurate assessment of teams, the data is limited to the elite international tournaments. Here are the predictions to lift the cup.
- Spain has a 57.0% chance to beat England in Euro (neutral site).
- Argentina has a 69.3% chance to beat Colombia in Copa America (neutral site).
The numbers suggest value in Argentina -188 (65.3% break even probability). While Colombia has played really well in this tournament, Argentina has better players based on analysis from the Twenty First Group (subscription to The Athletic required, don’t read if you’re a USMNT fan).
In addition, Argentina has an extra day rest. Colombia went all out to hold a 1-0 lead over Uruguay down a man, while Argentina got to dink the ball around against an inferior Canada. There is value in Argentina -188 at FanDuel to win Copa America (game at 8pm Eastern on Sunday).
The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season – I’m working on an audio preview of the football season, the ultimate analytics and betting guide. The audiobook type product features two in depth stories:
- Whether Josh Allen, the gunslinger, is turnover prone.
- The secret to making accurate NFL spread predictions, especially early in the season.
To check out a sample of the preview, check out the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show. The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season will be released the week after the Olympics.
NFL analysis – Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports grinds on the NFL all year round. He posted a thread with a few sentences on all 32 teams. A few items that stuck out to me:
- Indianapolis QB Anthony Richardson is in the MVP discussion if he stays healthy.
- The first losing season for Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh.
- No drop off for the Buffalo offense despite loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
Check out Adam’s insight on all 32 NFL teams.
College football humor – Skip this if you’re an Ohio State fan.
Bud Elliott of CBS Sports on getting hate mail: “They both write the same amount of words, but Michigan fans use paragraphs, and they send it to you in an email with an attachment. Ohio State fans will tweet you 7,000 times. The word count is the same, but the delivery is different.”
Tom Fornelli chimes in as well: “In Michigan tweets, there are words you have to look up because you’re not 100% sure what they mean. Wait, am I being insulted?”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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