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Uruguay vs Brazil, Copa America – Brazil has not looked great in this tournament, as they didn’t create many goal scoring chances in a 1-1 tie against Colombia in their last match. Even worse, they will not have Vinicius Jr., one of the best attacking players in the world, against Uruguay.
However, Brazil is the most talented team in the world. Even without Vinicius Jr., they can turn to players like Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli or 17 year old Endrick who will join Real Madrid next season.
My world football/soccer numbers, which take match results and adjust for opponent, give Brazil a 66% chance to advance past Uruguay at a neutral site. My adjusted xG numbers like Brazil even more. There should be an adjustment for Vinicius Jr.’s absence, but the numbers should still favor Brazil.
Last night, there was value in Brazil -110 to advance past Uruguay to the Copa America semi-finals. This morning, the market moved to Brazil -130 (56.5% break even probability at FanDuel), and I would still lean towards Brazil.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year – In his 2024 NFL Preview, NFL analyst Clevta likes Arizona WR Marvin Harrison Jr. for offensive rookie of the year.
Harrison will immediately become the top target for QB Kyler Murray, a top 12-15 quarterback in Clevta’s estimation. Arizona has a bottom five defense, so the offensive will get plenty of late game drives to rack up yards and touchdowns for Harrison.
In addition, QB Caleb Williams comes in with huge expectations, so a solid season from the Chicago rookie might not be good enough to win the award. Clevta likes Harrison +750 at FanDuel to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Normally, I wouldn’t put an NFL season long bet in 5-Nuggets the first week of July. In addition, I should really highlight the excellent, succinct analysis that Clevta offers on all 32 teams. However, the market moved on all of Clevta’s player analysis last season, so grab the best number now as you read the rest of Clevta’s 2024 NFL Preview.
College football preseason rankings – In ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), it’s not a surprise that Georgia holds the top spot. QB Carson Beck is back, and Georgia always boasts a talented roster.
However, FPI has Oregon at #2 ahead of Texas and Ohio State. Oregon lost QB Bo Nix to the NFL but brought in veteran QB Dillon Gabriel, who last played at Oklahoma. FPI predicts 10.8 wins for Oregon, consistent with the market of 10.5 wins (+100 for the over at FanDuel).
Check out the win total projections of ESPN’s FPI college football rankings.
Ask the right questions – Bill James is the OG in baseball analytics, but he isn’t happy with the direction of the field. James has always been interested in big questions like why teams win. He doesn’t like how a proliferation of data has led analysts to answer less significant questions.
Fortunately, sports betting keeps quants focused on the most important problem: finding value in the market.
NBA humor – AI isn’t all bad. This NSFW video probably tells the truth about why the Lakers drafted Bronny James (:32 run time).
This Lakers tweet is also funny, especially if you like the show Entourage.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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