Looking for March Madness betting action this weekend? Your curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
March Madness player prop – Illinois does not force turnovers. By my adjusted turnover rate, they rank 352nd in adjusted turnover rate out of 362 teams.
Tristan Newton leads a Connecticut team that has dominated through the Sweet Sixteen. Without any flash, he scores, distributes and rebounds the ball at a high level.
While he isn’t elite at taking care of the ball, Newton faces an Illinois defense that doesn’t generate turnovers. At DraftKings, Newton under 2.5 turnovers has a price of -125 (55.6% break even probability), and I get a 61% chance that he goes under with some mild assumptions. Game tips at 6:09pm Eastern on Saturday.
Connecticut women – While Dan Hurley and the Connecticut men are dominating, the women are flying under the radar as South Carolina and Caitlin Clark get all the headlines.
However, the numbers love UConn under legendary coach Geno Auriemma. HerHoopStats has Connecticut third behind South Carolina and Iowa. In addition, South Carolina is on the other side of the bracket.
Paige Bueckers missed all of last season with an injury but has returned this season to average 21.8 points per game and hit 41.8% of her threes for Connecticut.
Connecticut is +1600 to win the tournament. The numbers suggest value in this future, and you can always hedge if they make the final against South Carolina. Note: a previous edition of this newsletter mistakenly stated that Iowa was on the other side of the bracket from UConn.
Alabama versus Clemson – As an 11 seed, Clemson has made a remarkable run to the Elite Eight. Chase Hunter has led the way with 59 points in three games.
However, Clemson might not sustain their performance. They have allowed opponents to shoot 18.7% from three (14 of 75) in the NCAA tournament. Regression to the college basketball mean of 33.8% looms for Clemson’s defense.
Somehow, an Alabama team that doesn’t play defense is now favored to make the Final Four out of the East Region. As of Saturday morning, the markets have Alabama -3.5 point over Clemson.
NFL draft – While Caleb Williams will go first in the draft, Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy have surged in mock drafts the past month. Grinding the Mocks, a wisdom of crowds approach from Benjamin Robinson, now makes the following predictions:
- Jayden Daniels, LSU, 2nd. (-145 on FanDuel to be the 2nd pick).
- JJ McCarthy, Michigan, 7th. (FanDuel has -110 for him to go to Minnesota with the 11th pick).
While Minnesota is the expected landing spot for McCarthy, he could go higher. Hence, he has an expected draft position of 7th.
Check out Grinding the Mocks for draft information, and stay tuned to 5-Nuggets in April for NFL draft bets.
College basketball humor – Sick of the lame AT&T commercials this year? Check out this classic from Charles Barkley, Samuel L. Jackson and Spike Lee in the Annapolis.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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