Looking for sports betting action on the eve of Selection Sunday? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College basketball player prop – The college basketball player prop market has been erratic on the big modern, American sports books. When I usually handicap on Saturday morning, sometimes there are no props at all.
This morning, DraftKings in Michigan only had one player prop. Not points. Not rebounds. Turnovers.
Houston off guard LJ Cryer’s turnover prop is 1.5, with a price -135 for under. Cryer plays off the ball, and he has taken 265 threes compared to 170 twos. When Houston’s offense clicks, Cryer gets three point shots off of a Jamal Shead drive and kick.
Cryer has had 2 or more turnovers in five of 33 starts this season. There is value in Cryer under 1.5 turnovers, -135 at DraftKings.
Predicting tournament winners – On a recent episode of Bracket Wisdom on The Football Analytics Show, I was embarrassed to note that the preseason AP poll was better at predicting the winner in tournament games than my college basketball team rankings.
After recording that episode, it occurred to me to check how the champion ranked in both metrics. This time, the numbers come out ahead:
- College basketball team rankings – 17 of 21 champions ranked in the top 5.
- Preseason AP poll – 12 of 21 champions ranked in the top 5.
Also, the preseason AP poll tends to whiff more on champions. For example, Connecticut was 29th in the preseason AP poll last season, while the Huskies ranked 4th in my college basketball team rankings before the start of the tournament.
Both The Power Rank college basketball team rankings and the preseason AP poll are excellent resources in filling out your bracket. You can check out all the 10 minute episodes of Bracket Wisdom at The Power Rank and on YouTube.
Interactive March Madness win probabilities – At The Power Rank, an interactive visual lets you look at the round by round probabilities for each team.
- Hover over the team to see the probability to advance through each round.
- Hover over a node to see each team’s chance to win that game.
The numbers originate from my college basketball team rankings, and I used ESPN’s bracket prediction. Connecticut and Houston have the highest chance to win the tournament.
This interactive visual will get updated after the field of 68 gets announced on Sunday. Please share this resource with a friend.
Potential betting edge because of the ball – On the VSIN show A Numbers Game, Drew Dinsick talked about the slick ball used in the NCAA tournament that only some conferences use in their tournaments. The idea is to bet the first half under in games in which neither team played with this ball.
The ball is the Wilson Evo NXT, and a page on the Wilson website lists some of the conferences which use the ball (Power 5 except for the ACC, American, WAC). It also lists teams like Kansas and Auburn that use the ball in all games.
College basketball humor – Chris Farley, RIP, kills it in this sketch comedy of Christian Laettner’s famous shot against Kentucky.
The commercial for Michigan’s Rumeal Robinson has more of Farley’s Tommy Boy type humor. This Athletic article (subscription required) tells the story behind this set of commercials that Farley did for ESPN.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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