Looking for smart betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
The first two nuggets are based on college basketball games that tip early on Saturday. While I would rather have nuggets on later games to give you more time to bet, that will have to wait for future weeks.
College basketball prop – LJ Cryer transferred from Baylor to Houston, and he now plays a key role on offense for a defense oriented team. Cryer has averaged 14.8 points this season to lead Houston.
However, Cryer’s production has decreased lately, as he has averaged 12.4 points in Big 12 games. Point guard Jamal Shead is the alpha for Houston, and he has taken a bigger role on offense in conference play.
DraftKings has Cryer’s points prop at 14.5, and he has gone under in 7 of 11 conference games. Cryer is a terrific three point shooter (41.0% over the past three seasons), so he has the ability to make the under look stupid. But there is value in Cryer under 14.5 points (-125 available at DraftKings, game tips at 1pm Eastern).
College basketball spread – Mike Craig, a professional bettor that also works with Right Angle Sports, likes the match up for Hofstra against Northeastern.
Hofstra relies on the three, and Northeastern has allowed three point success at volume to opponents. In contrast, Northeastern’s offense focuses on two point shots, and Hofstra has the best two point defense in the Colonial Athletic Conference.
Mike’s model has Hofstra by 7.25 points before considering the match up advantages, and he likes Hofstra -6 (-115 available at DraftKings, game tips at 2pm Eastern).
Appearance on The Bettor Life podcast – Usually when I am a guest on a podcast, the host asks me to break down a game and give a bet. Tim Lawson, host of The Bettor Life podcast, was different.
Tim asked me about my betting journey, from the embarrassing beginning to the current state of The Power Rank. Along the way, we talked about pick selling, whether the bettor or a model makes a bet and other topics that I have never discussed in public.
Check out my appearance on The Bettor Life.
The most intriguing defense ever – In 2019, Jeff Hafley served as the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State. His unit was elite, ranking 1st in my adjusted passing success rate.
This defense has always intrigued me because of what happened to the staff and key players. After that season, Hafley took the head coaching job at Boston College and never managed more than 7 wins in a season. His best defense ranked 50th in my adjusted success rate (2022), and his most recent defense was much worse (84th).
Let’s also look at the key players on that 2019 Ohio State defense (2020 NFL draft position in parentheses).
- Edge Chase Young (2nd overall) was traded from Washington to San Francisco for a 3rd round pick this season.
- CB Jeffrey Okudah (3rd overall) had a 46 PFF coverage grade (out of 100) in 2023 for Atlanta.
- CB Damon Arnette (19th overall) last played in the NFL in 2021.
The stars aligned for coordinator and players in 2019, but no one has excelled since. This week, Hafley took the DC job for the Green Bay Packers.
Betting humor – BetMGM took a $4.8M loss on a $10.9M in Super Bowl bets in the state of New York. Soft is soft. (hat tip to Captain Jack)
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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