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Total turnovers – As part of my coding binge this week, I looked into the probability that each team loses a fumble. This required digging out metrics from the play by play like the 0.66% chance for a fumble lost on a run play.
Ultimately, I found no value in either San Francisco (-130) or Kansas City (-155) to not lose a fumble. However, this work also led to a 57.9% chance for two or fewer total turnovers.
There is value in total turnovers under 2.5, -110 at DraftKings (under D/ST props, Turnovers). The edge comes from my interception analytics, the basis of my interception props for members of The Power Rank that are up over 22 units this season.
Mike Danna tackles and assists – Ryan Noonan of 4for4 Football has won on over 60% of his tackle props the past two seasons. For the Super Bowl, he wrote up every tackle and assist prop.
Ryan notes that Kansas City edge Mike Danna should play more snaps because of the injury to Charles Omenihu. When Omenihu was suspended the first six games of the season, Danna’s snap rate hovered around 80-85%.
Ryan’s model assumes Danna will play 70% of snaps and projects 3.1 tackles and assists. There is a 59.9% chance that Danna has three or more tackles and assists, and there is value in over 2.5 tackles and assists, +110 at DraftKings.
Same game parlay – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, Matt Freedman of Fantasy Life said he likes San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey anytime TD scorer, -225. His model gives a 73.3% chance that CMC scores a touchdown.
Even more interesting than this value is Matt’s suggestion of using this in a same game parlay (SGP). Matt’s model projects 117.7 scrimmage yards for McCaffrey, which suggests value in under 128.5 receiving and rushing yards.
The sports books usually price in some negative correlation for this parlay. For example, I bet this SGP earlier this week at a price of +214. Usually, less yards implies less of a chance to score a TD.
However, Matt doesn’t think this applies to McCaffrey. He gets so many goal line touches that he doesn’t need to have a huge yardage game to score a touchdown. He suggests a SGP with these two legs (numbers from DraftKings):
- Any time TD scorer: -225 (under TD Scorers)
- Total scrimmage yards: under 128.5 yards (under Rushing Props, then Rush + Rec Yards)
George Kittle is banged up, and Brandon Aiyuk faces a difficult match up against Kansas City’s cornerbacks. In addition, the Niners offense tends to get Samuel easy targets.
Evan bet Deebo Samuel over 55.5 receiving yards, but he still likes the over at 58.5 receiving yards. In fact, he would make his projection 71 receiving yards for Deebo Samuel.
Super Bowl humor – This Seinfeld inspired Super Bowl skit is well worth four minutes of your time. Bravo, Joey Mulinaro.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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