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Kansas City vs San Francisco, Super Bowl – San Francisco has been the NFL’s best team this season by many of my metrics. In contrast, Kansas City’s offense has struggled at times this season, and they have had success because of surprising results from the defense.
Based on data from the current season, I would predict San Francisco by 2.4 points over Kansas City.
However, the current season is a small sample size of data. Patrick Mahomes has started at QB for six seasons under Andy Reid. Their vast success over this time is reflected in a preseason prior that still plays a part of my best prediction.
My best member numbers like San Francisco by 0.3 points. To me, this predictions means the Kansas City offense will outperform their season averages, which makes up for probable regression on defense. I lean Kansas City +2.5, -115 available at FanDuel.
Super Bowl reception prop – San Francisco WR Jauan Jennings has gone over 1.5 receptions in seven of 15 games this season. However, Connor Allen of 4for4 Football notes the context in many of these games. For example:
- Week 3 vs New York Giants, 2 catches but Brandon Aiyuk didn’t play.
- Week 7 vs Minnesota, 5 catches but Deebo Samuel didn’t play.
- Week 15 vs Arizona, 2 catches but the second came in garbage time from Sam Darnold.
Jennings went over 1.5 receptions in two games all season with a healthy Samuel and Aiyuk, and one of those was the Arizona game. Connor likes Jennings under 1.5 receptions, -135 available at DraftKings.
Super Bowl market movement – At the South Point sportsbook, Chris Andrews had San Francisco -3 over Kansas City on the look ahead line before the conference championship games. One sharp bettor laid the points, and South Point closed San Francisco -3.5 before last Sunday’s games.
After the conference championship games, Chris opened San Francisco -2. He got enough sharp action on Kansas City that he went as far as San Francisco -1.
At that number, other sharp bettors took San Francisco. At the current San Francisco -2, the South Point is taking two way action.
Super Bowl prop betting advice – Super Bowl betting is different because of the huge number of markets available. Here is some general advice from experts.
- The traditional advice on Super Bowl props is to bet over early and under late. On the Forward Progress podcast, pro bettor Hitman warned against blindly betting this strategy, as the market gets sharper every year. However, he still likes it as a general rule and advises waiting until closer to kickoff to bet an under.
- On The Football Analytics Show podcast, Adam Levitan advised looking at the weirder props. As an example, he gave out longest field goal missed, a prop not offered for any other football game. Focus on these lesser markets to find value.
- On the same Forward Progress podcast, pro bettor Rob Pizzola cautions about overconfidence. If the market steams toward the over on the length of the national anthem, don’t insist on value on the under because you watched two YouTube videos.
Betting humor – In April of 2023, Alabama baseball coach Brad Bohannon texted a bettor that his posted pitcher would not start against LSU.
The bettor attempted to place a $100k wager on LSU at BetMGM, but they only took $15,000. The softest sports book took fifteen dimes on a college baseball game!
The bettor tried to place additional bets on the game, but the sportsbook declined. Maybe it was because the bettor insisted that the bets would win, saying “if only you guys knew what I knew.” The bettor even showed the staff messages from Bohannon.
Bohannon was fired, and the NCAA gave him a 15 year show clause, which severely restricts his potential employment in college sports. The bettor was last seen signing up for Spanky’s masterclass on bookmaker bettor relations.
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