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NFL tackle prop – Ryan Noonan of 4for4 specializes in NFL tackle props, and he likes the prospects for San Francisco star defensive end Nick Bosa for many reasons.
First, sacks and half sacks count as a tackle, which aids a pass rush specialist like Bosa. Second, Detroit should try to run the ball against a San Francisco defense that allowed Green Bay a hefty 48.1% rushing success rate last week. This provides even more tackle and assist opportunities for Bosa.
Third, Detroit’s opponents average 67 tackles and assists per game, the third highest rate in the NFL. In addition, defensive ends like Bosa have had 22% more tackles and assists than the league average against Detroit.
Ryan’s model projects 3.94 tackles and assists for Bosa and a 75.2% chance that he goes over 2.5. Even at the hefty price of -166 on DraftKings, there is value on Nick Bosa. Update: the market has moved to 3.5, but Ryan’s model gives a 55.5% chance for Bosa to go over. There is value in over 3.5, +135 at DraftKings.
Follow Ryan Noonan for all of his insights.
NFL receiving prop – On the Forward Progress podcast, pro bettor Fabian Sommer noted how well San Francisco defends the pass over the middle. While Detroit tends to throw in this area of the field, OC Ben Johnson most likely changes his strategy with more outside throws.
This switch opens up opportunities for WR Jameson Williams. Fabian expects Detroit to throw some screens and possibly deep shots on the outside to the second year speedster. There is value in Jameson Williams over 28.5 receiving yards (-110 available at FanDuel).
Follow pro NFL bettor Fabian Sommer for all of his insights.
NFL sack prop – As mentioned in my analysis of the NFC Championship game, San Francisco has an advantage with their interior pass rush against Detroit. The Lions will have a hobbled C Frank Ragnow and be without OG Jonah Jackson.
San Francisco’s interior defensive linemen are excellent pass rushers, and a new rough model gives the following chances for a sack.
- Javon Hargrave: 45.7% chance for a sack (+185 on DraftKings, 35.1% break even probability)
- Arik Armstead: 47.6% chance for a sack (+130 on FanDuel, 43.5% break even probability)
In addition, San Francisco most likely has a second half lead, which would lead to more Jared Goff drop backs and sack opportunities.
Going for 2 down 8 – After last week’s game in Detroit, ESPN’s Michael Wilbon ranted about idiocy in going for 2 after Tampa Bay scored a touchdown to make the deficit 8 points. However, this is a clear cut edge from analytics.
Let’s assume that Tampa Bay will score another touchdown; otherwise, they have no chance of winning. Kicking two extra points puts the game in over time, and let’s assume each team has a 50-50 chance to win in the extra period.
If Tampa Bay makes the 2 point conversion, they can kick an extra point to win after the second touchdown. The NFL average for 2 point conversions is about 50%, so this situation already recovers the probability of winning in overtime by kicking two extra points.
If Tampa Bay misses the 2 point conversion, they can still win by converting the second 2 point conversion and winning in overtime. There is a one in eight chance for this to happen. While the downside is a one in four chance that Tampa Bay loses in regulation, they can increase their win probability by about 12.5% by going for 2 down 8.
Wilbon ranted about how analytics doesn’t consider personnel. He neglected to mention how a poor Detroit defense increased the odds of a two point conversion.
NFL humor – This Asian broadcast of the late field goal attempt by Buffalo is priceless.
This Jason Kelce/Taylor Swift collaboration came in a close second this week.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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