Looking for smart betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor.
NFL tackles and assists prop – Ryan Noonan of 4for4 Football has hit on 62.5% of his tackle props the past two seasons. This week, he likes Los Angeles Rams S Jordan Fuller against Cleveland for a number of reasons.
First, Cleveland averages the most offensive plays per game this season. This creates an average of 70.2 tackles and assists (TAs) per game, 14% more than the league average. Cleveland’s defense is the driving force here, limiting teams to a league-low 4.4 plays per drive.
Second, Fuller gets another boost here due to the Rams home scorekeeper. Rams games have averaged a high assist rate for three straight seasons, with an assist per opportunity rate 6% higher than the NFL average. The Rams get an even higher assist rate compared to their opponents for these home games.
Even though Joe Flacco at QB for the Browns projects for fewer plays, Ryan’s model projects 6.9 TAs for Fuller. There is value on Jordan Fuller over 5.5 tackles and assists, +110 at DraftKings.
Follow Ryan Noonan on X and catch him on the Move the Line podcast for all of his insights.
San Francisco at Philadelphia, NFL Week 13 – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, NFL data scientist Ben Brown likes the Eagles at home in this marquee game on Sunday.
Ben has Philadelphia as better than San Francisco by his metrics. In addition, he notes that Philadelphia leads the NFL in expected points added when behind this season.
For San Francisco, turnovers are potentially an issue, as QB Brock Purdy has made an interception worthy throw on 3.4% of his pass attempts (2.4% NFL average interception rate). Ben likes Philadelphia +3 at home versus San Francisco, and the member numbers at The Power Rank agree (Eagles by 0.7 points).
College football playoff semi-final spreads – Chris Andrews, sports book director at the South Point in Las Vegas, has a list of point spreads for potential games. Highlights include:
- Michigan -7 vs Washington. This spread will be less after Washington’s strong performance in a win over Oregon on Friday night.
- Georgia -15 vs Florida State. Combined with my member numbers, this suggests the adjustment for the absence of Florida State QB Jordan Travis is about 5 points.
Chris’s numbers also imply Georgia -3 vs Michigan. Follow Chris on X for all of his bookmaking insights.
No SEC teams in the college football playoff? – For this to happen, Alabama must beat Georgia. Otherwise, Georgia makes it as an unbeaten SEC champion.
To have any chance to lock out both Georgia and Alabama, these three teams must also win (win probability is from the FanDuel moneyline on Friday afternoon):
- Michigan, 94%.
- Florida State, 52%.
- Texas, 85%.
There is a 15% chance that these three teams and Alabama (36% probability) win.
Michigan and Florida State would automatically join Washington in the playoff. Then, the committee will have a long conversation about whether Texas, Alabama or possibly Georgia gets the last spot.
It is impossible to predict the behavior of a room full of people who scream bloody murder at the word algorithm. Let’s assume a coin flip between Texas and Alabama, which implies a 7.5% chance the SEC gets left out.
Yesterday, FanDuel also had two prices for this set of playoff teams: Michigan, Pac-12 champion, Florida State, Texas. The sum of the break even probabilities was 5.4%.
NSFW football humor – We take a break from our regular programming of Annie Agar and SEC Shorts to bring you this child from Philadelphia.
If you think this is an AI generated deep fake, then you haven’t been to a game in Philly.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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