These are two teams headed in opposite directions since their regular season meeting, a game in which Washington won by 3.
Washington remains undefeated, but it has been a struggle. They beat Washington State by 3 last week as a 15 point favorite. This win made their record 7-0 record in one score games this season, an unsustainable rate.
Washington’s offense is still elite with QB Michael Penix and NFL caliber receivers like Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. The defense has actually moved up to 37th in my adjusted success rate.
However, Oregon has simply dominated teams since the loss to Washington, both on the scoreboard and by success rate. Let’s look at two examples:
- Oregon clobbered Utah 35-6, and they had a significant advantage in success rate (60.3% to 31.8% for Utah). Utah later gave Washington all they could handle in a 35-28 game.
- Oregon dominated rival Oregon State by a 31-7 score last week. The prior week, Oregon State took Washington to the wire in a 2 point loss. Oregon State had a 41.1% success rate compared to 34.0% for Washington.
In addition, Oregon QB Bo Nix is the favorite to win the Heisman (-190 at DraftKings). A signature performance in the Pac-12 championship game would seal the win.
In my aggressive model that tends to move on recent performance, Oregon is first in the nation, ahead of Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. This model has Oregon by 12.5 points over Washington at neutral site.
I know this seems crazy after Washington closed -3 at home against Oregon. However, the Ducks have dominated.
There is no longer Oregon -9 like I recommended to members of The Power Rank on Sunday night when the member numbers were posted. But I would still take Oregon -9.5.
Here is a sample of predictions available to members of The Power Rank.
CFB. Florida State will beat Louisville by 3.3 points at a neutral site. This prediction doesn’t account for the absence of Florida State QB Jordan Travis. Backup Tate Rodemaker had a 32.0% passing success rate against Florida (39.7% college football average). A proper adjustment probably puts this close to a pick.
NFL. Houston will beat Denver by 1.3 points at home. In the preseason, my numbers would have made Denver -4 on the road. Houston has exceeded expectations though, and data from the current season would make Houston -7 at home. Both my prediction and the market (Houston -3.5) split the difference.
NFL. Kansas City will beat Green Bay by 6.3 points on the road. Green Bay QB Jordan Love has been great in 3 of the past 4 games, but against lesser defenses (rank by my adjusted passing success rate).
- Los Angeles Rams, 15th.
- Los Angeles Chargers, 26th.
- Detroit, 31st.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at noon Eastern on Thursday, November 30, 2023. The market has moved since then.
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