Looking for smart sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor.
Washington State at Washington – Despite a 5-6 record, the experts on the Cover 3 podcast like the chances for Washington State to cover and possibly pull off the upset. The panel noted the quality in Washington State QB Cam Ward, and Washington still has their issues on defense.
College football betting expert Bud Elliott likes what he saw from Washington State against Colorado last week despite the lack of competition. In addition, the Cougars have key players coming back from injury.
Bud said he would bet Washington State +14.5 or better. My member numbers at The Power Rank agree, as I have Washington by 13.0 points at home. As of Saturday morning, FanDuel has Washington State +16.5 for the 4pm Eastern kick off.
NFL passing prop – On the Move the Line NFL podcast, Connor Allen does not like the match up for Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert against Baltimore’s defense.
Herbert will play without many of his key weapons such as WR Joshua Palmer. In addition, Baltimore’s defense has allowed only one QB to throw for more than 252 passing yards this season. Detroit’s Jared Goff needed 53 pass attempts but still only had 284 yards.
Connor likes Justin Herbert under 252.5 passing yards, a number available at DraftKings as of Saturday morning.
Rest advantage in the NFL – Tampa Bay played last week at San Francisco. The Bucs travel to play Indianapolis, a team that had a bye last week after a win over New England in Germany.
To calculate rest advantage, I use data since the start of the 2015. This gives me a sample of 260 games with a team coming off a bye week against a team that played the previous week.
This calculation gives a rest edge of 0.8 points to Indianapolis against Tampa Bay. However, the error is only 0.6 points, so there is no statistical certainty that bye advantage exists at all.
Along with the 2.1 points for home advantage against a non division opponent, my numbers like Indianapolis by 2.6 points at home. To learn how my schedule adjustments play a role in these home and rest calculations, check out a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show podcast.
Sports betting Q&A – For Thanksgiving, professional bettor and founder of Bet Bash Spanky answered questions for over two hours. One person asked what he would do if sports books didn’t limit him.
Spanky said he would bet props. This would give him the highest return on investment. Check out all of his answers on the most recent episode of the Be Better Bettors podcast.
College football humor – Are you an Auburn fan despite the home loss to New Mexico State? Try Extra Strength AuburnFansatol, a product of SEC Shorts. Side effects include constantly talking about the early 1980s.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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