Looking for smart betting action this weekend? Your curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Unabated podcast – Same game parlays seem like the domain of amateurs. You laugh at your friend that bets the SGP that shows up first on FanDuel. However, on the Unabated Podcast, professional sports bettor Rufus Peabody talked about the edges in SGPs despite the high hold.
The sports books price a SGP based on the correlation between quantities such as QB pass yards and WR receiving yards. Rufus thinks there is value in finding exceptions to these general correlations, and he plans to build software that allows people to explore this value in SGPs.
The Unabated Podcast with Captain Jack and Tom Viola is an excellent sports betting resource. In addition, they were also kind enough to have me on this week to discuss my mathematical schedule adjustments and interception props.
NFL interception prop – Even with the power of using bad ball rate to predict interceptions, small sample size is an issue. While I trust the 1702 pass attempts of Josh Allen since the start of the 2021 season, Sam Howell has 417 attempts over his two NFL seasons.
Howell has a bad ball rate of 12.5%, worse than the NFL average of 11.6% since the start of the 2021 season. While I might expect regression to the mean for a more promising QB, Howell’s rate is most likely accurate for a player who might not start past this season.
Despite being a large favorite against the New York Giants and QB Tommy DeVito, the market has a large value of 35.5 pass attempts for Howell. My model gives a 58.5% chance of an interception, and there is value in Howell over 0.5 interceptions (-115 at DraftKings).
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay, NFL Week 11 – On the Props & Hops podcast, NFL originator SharpClarke notes the Chargers offense continues to underwhelm without key contributors. WR Mike Williams is hurt again, and center Corey Linsley has not played since week 3.
From watching game film, SharpClarke sees slow but steady improvement in the Packers offense, with a strong offensive line and young WRs finding their stride with QB Jordan Love. The Packers did well against Pittsburgh last week, and they face a worse defense against the Chargers.
SharpClarke’s numbers make the spread Chargers -1.5, which agrees with The Power Rank member prediction of 1.4 points. There is value in Packers +3.
College basketball predictions – These are predictions are based on my model that adjusts teams according to early season data.
- Connecticut will beat Indiana by 10.6 points, neutral site (Sunday). Connecticut brings back Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban to defend their national title from April, 2023. While they have yet to face decent competition in three games, Indiana should give them a test in New York City.
- Houston will beat Dayton by 13.0 points, neutral site (Sunday). Houston lost Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker to the 1st round of the NBA draft, but Kelvin Sampson probably still has a top 5 team. Houston beat a solid Utah team by 10 points on Friday.
- Florida Atlantic will beat Bryant by 21.2 points at home. Florida Atlantic brings back five contributors from a team that came within a point of the national championship game in April.
Members of The Power Rank get access to these predictions the day before the games, which allows you to take advantage of the soft opening market.
NFL humor – Deshaun Watson is out for the season, and Annie Agar suggests that just maybe, the Browns should have had a contingency plan given that he missed multiple games this year.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”