While these teams played in the Super Bowl last season, a lot has changed since that game.
Kansas City is known for their efficient pass offense. However, coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes haven’t hit their lofty standards this season, as they rank 9th in my adjusted passing success rate.
Expect this to get better, as they still have the NFL’s best TE in Travis Kelce. In addition, rookie WR Rashee Rice as impressed so far with 2.28 yards per route run, much better than the NFL average of 1.5 for WRs.
Kansas City looks great based on this year’s numbers because of the defense. The pass defense ranks 2nd in my adjusted passing success rate.
However, regression is looming for this unit. Kansas City has a long track record of being league average on defense, and their personnel this season doesn’t suggest otherwise. In addition, the Chiefs are 18th in PFF coverage grade.
The offense will improve while the defense regresses, and this means that Kansas City’s rank of 3rd based on data from the current season should hold steady.
Philadelphia has an NFL best 8-1 record. Their lone loss came in a winnable game vs the Jets, as Jalen Hurts lost his mind with 3 interceptions. The Eagles have an unsustainable 5-1 record in one score games, with wins over Dallas and Washington twice.
The defense has been worse than last season, as Philadelphia ranks 16th in my adjusted passing success rate. CB Darius Slay and James Bradberry both have worse PFF coverage grades than last season. In addition, CB Josh Jobe has struggled to fill in for an injured Avonte Maddox.
After a rough start to the season in throwing the ball, Jalen Hurts has been great the past two weeks (NFL averages are 42.3% success rate, 6.05 yards per pass attempt, and defensive rank is according to my adjusted passing success rate):
- 50.0% success rate, 7.0 yards per pass attempt against Dallas (7th).
- 50.0% success rate, 7.9 yards per pass attempt against Washington (6th).
Overall, Philadelphia ranks 10th in my adjusted passing success rate. Despite these recent performances, I don’t trust Hurts as a passer and view these games as outliers.
My member numbers have Kansas City by 4.8 points over Philadelphia at home. Based on only data from this season, I’d make Kansas City -5 over Philadelphia on a neutral site.
In addition, Jalen Hurts is listed as questionable, as he played through the Dallas game after taking a hit to his left knee. There is value in Kansas City -2.5, and I fully expect the market to move to -3 or more.
Here are 3 predictions usually reserved for paying members of The Power Rank.
CFB. Oregon State will beat Washington by 2.3 points at home. On Sunday, FanDuel had Washington -2.5 on the road. Now, most books have Oregon State -2.5, as sharp bettors recognize almost a month of mediocre play from the 10-0 Huskies.
CFB. Georgia will beat Tennessee by 8.7 points on the road. All world TE Brock Bowers returned for Georgia last week, and the Bulldogs have looked impressive since that close call at Auburn. Georgia is back on top of my member college football rankings, and I do not recommend taking Tennessee +10 because of this prediction.
NFL. Cleveland will beat Pittsburgh by 1.2 points at home. This prediction comes from my market model that takes closing spreads and adjusts for opponents. This model says that Cleveland is 3.5 points worse than NFL average with PJ Walker at QB. For this division game, I use a home advantage of 1.3 points, and I explain how I calculate this and rest advantage in the most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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