Looking for some smart sports betting action this weekend? Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL rushing prop – Connor Allen of 4for4 Football notes that New York Jets RB Breece Hall has seen 20 touches per game since coach Robert Saleh said they were letting him loose. This week, Hall faces the truly pathetic Las Vegas Raiders defense on Sunday night.
The Las Vegas defense is 30th in rushing success rate allowed and have allowed 4.65 yards per carry to opposing running backs (4.1 NFL average). They have allowed 8 running backs to rush for 65 or more yards, including a dustball like Joshua Kelley of the Los Angeles Chargers.
Connor likes Hall over 63.5 rushing yards (-130 is available at DraftKings). He also likes alternative markets like Hall with 90+ yards at +230. Follow Connor for all of his data driven NFL betting insights.
Cleveland at Baltimore, NFL Week 10 – On the Props & Hops podcast, quantitative bettor Drew Dinsick notes that Deshaun Watson is back for Cleveland but will be limited with his lingering shoulder injury. A Baltimore defense firing on all cylinders under Mike Macdonald presents stiff opposition for Watson and the Cleveland offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens are fully healthy. This gives them a chance to contain a stout Browns defensive front and create opportunities for Lamar Jackson and the passing game to amass a multi-score margin.
Drew likes Baltimore -6.5, and he would bet it up to a touchdown. Follow @whale_capper for all his quantitative insights into the NFL, NBA and tennis.
College football rushing stats – Parker Fleming of Sumer Sports posted data on rushing yards before contact for all 133 FBS teams, which should mostly reflect the impact of the offensive line.
Here are the ranks for two teams playing in a big game this weekend:
- Michigan, 57th, 2.24 rush yards before contact.
- Penn State, 100th, 1.81 rush yards before contact.
Michigan RB Blake Corum’s numbers are down this season, but his 5.2 yards per carry this season isn’t too far off the 5.9 from his Heisman caliber campaign last season.
Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton has seen a much more drastic drop in his efficiency, as he has 4.0 yards per carry this season compared to 6.8 last year. Kaytron Allen has had more carries than Singleton in the last two games.
Tennessee QB Will Levis – Usually, a team treads lightly with a rookie QB. Get him used to the NFL with the run game and short passes.
Not Tennessee and Will Levis. He came roaring out of the gate with 3 touchdown passes of 20 yards or more against Atlanta. Levis had another 7 pass plays of 20 or more yards against Pittsburgh.
In two games, Levis has thrown 44.8% of his passes with 10 or more air yards, the highest rate in the NFL. I mention this to highlight the nflverse data set I used to do this analysis. You can download a csv and get data like air yards, or the number of yards a pass travels past the line of scrimmage, on every play.
College football humor – Ever have a problem with a contractor? SEC programs are also having similar problems with their rebuild.
It was a fantastic week for college football humor, as this Joey Mulinaro conversation between Coach Harbaugh and Prime was also spectacular.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”