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Atlanta at Tennessee, NFL Week 8 – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, Connor Allen of 4for4Football discussed the Tennessee QB change, as Ryan Tannehill will not play. Instead of going with Malik Willis like they did two weeks ago against Baltimore, the Titans have opted for rookie Will Levis.
Connor Allen also noted that Tennessee traded S Kevin Byard, their defense player with the most snaps played. This might signal that winning is no longer the top priority for a 2-4 team.
Connor also likes how Atlanta’s offense is evolving, and he likes Atlanta -2.5 on the road. On the Forward Progress podcast, professional bettor Hitman agrees, as he thinks Tennessee might be the NFL’s worst offense with Levis. There is value in Atlanta -2.5.
College football rushing prop – Kentucky’s Ray Davis absolutely murdered Florida’s defense a few weeks ago. The transfer from Vanderbilt had 280 yards on 10.8 yards per attempt and two touchdowns.
However, it gets much tougher against Tennessee, a defense that has exceeded preseason expectations. Tennessee ranks 2nd in my adjusted rushing success rate on defense.
Davis has broken many explosive plays this season, as he is averaging 7.1 yards per carry. However, there is a large random element in explosive plays, and Davis never had better than 5 yards per carry in four previous seasons at Vanderbilt and Temple.
Davis will have a difficult time against Tennessee (7pm Eastern on Saturday). While his rushing prop was 92.5 yards yesterday, there is still value in under 90.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings).
Quantifying the advantage in NFL teasers – With a teaser, you get six extra points with the spread, but you have to win two bets. The best strategy involves moving through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Let’s look at an example from NFL week 8 at DraftKings.
- Detroit -8, -112 in a teaser becomes -2 (vs Las Vegas).
- Philadelphia -7, -108 in a teaser becomes -1 (at Washington).
The market spread agrees with my member numbers at The Power Rank, which suggests efficiency in both games individually. But is there value in a two team teaser? How much?
The Unabated teaser calculator gives you the answer. On DraftKings, the price of -120 implies a 3.53% edge on this bet. Load both bets into your slip and hit the teaser button to make this bet.
NBA Unabated line – Unabated curates the knowledge of pro bettors to find the sharpest sports books in each sport. The Unabated line is a weighted consensus among these sharp books and often predicts market movement. Let’s look at some NBA games.
- Memphis -1 at Washington. Both DraftKings and FanDuel had Memphis -1.5 on Friday night before moving to -1 this morning.
- Utah at Phoenix, total 224. As of publication on Saturday morning, DraftKings and FanDual were 223 or lower.
- New Orleans -2.5 vs New York Knicks. The Unabated line was -3 last night, and the entire market has moved towards the Knicks on the road.
Unabated offers a suite of incredible software tools to help sports bettors. In addition to the Unabated line, I often use the NFL simulator as discussed in Thursday’s newsletter. Until Sunday, October 29, get 40% off an Unabated subscription.
Sign stealing humor – Do you know how hard it was to find humor that Michigan and Ohio State folks could agree on this week?!
While the Big Ten poked fun at the SEC last week, it’s only fair to let SEC Shorts fire back about sign stealing.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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