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NFL interception prop – Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers has thrown only two interceptions this season. His 1.1% interception rate is the second lowest among NFL starters behind only Brock Purdy.
However, my research has shown that interception rate is a poor predictor of future interception rate. My model for interceptions also looks at passes defended, or plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball, to make better predictions.
Herbert also throws more passes than NFL average. He threw 37 passes against Dallas last week, and the market projects 38.5 attempts as an underdog at Kansas City. My numbers give a 57.4% chance he throws a pick, which suggests value in over 0.5 interceptions, +100 at DraftKings (although you might find a better price elsewhere).
Members of The Power Rank get instant access to all of my NFL interception props in my weekly analysis, and there will be more props posted at 11:30am this morning.
Minnesota at San Francisco, Monday Night Football – Over at Dr. Bob Sports, Tanner Buzick notes that Minnesota threw for 6.2 air yards without Justin Jefferson against Carolina. The star receiver could be worth up to 3 points.
However, San Francisco has its own injury problems. RB Christian McCaffrey is likely out, which impacts both the run and pass game. Tackle Trent Williams might also miss the game.
After accounting for the injuries, the Dr. Bob model likes San Francisco by 4.1 points, and they lean Minnesota +7. Check out all the profitable free NFL analysis on Dr. Bob Sports.
USC Trojans – After a 48-20 beat down at Notre Dame last week, many pundits are down on Lincoln Riley and USC football. In reality, the USC defense came into the season as the biggest question mark but actually played well in the loss.
USC held a good Notre Dame offense to 40.4% success rate, better than the college football average of 41.2%. In 2023, the USC defense ranks 34th in my adjusted success rate, a massive improvement from 93rd last season.
In a solo episode of The Football Analytics Show, I analyzed USC as one of three intriguing college football teams based on my schedule adjusted numbers. The Trojans are an example of why I lean on success rate over yards per play, an idea discussed in the episode.
While I do not consider USC the Pac-12 favorite because of another team discussed in the episode, the Trojans have yet to lose a conference game.
NFL edge on special teams – In the NFL, the receiving team can call a fair catch in the end zone and get the ball at the 25 yard line. It seems like a good deal compared to bringing it out, risking injury and not making it to the 25 yard line.
The Packers do not want this good deal. They have attempted a kickoff return out of the end zone 10 times, almost 40% of kickoffs. By the calculations of football analytics expert Josh Hermsmeyer, the Packers have lost 4.3 expected points.
It seems hard enough to win in the NFL without giving your opponent almost a point per game. You can check out the full list on Josh’s Air Yards.
College football humor – Is this funny only to those that live in Big Ten country? SEC Shorts pokes fun at its own conference and gives a shout out to the brilliant analytics of Bill Connelly.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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