Looking for some smart sports betting action this weekend? This is your weekly curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL interception prop – Despite his struggles this season, Joe Burrow is doing one thing well: not putting the football in dangerous situations.
In my research, I’ve found that bad balls, or interceptions and passes defended, are more predictive of future interceptions than only interceptions. This season, Burrow has a bad ball rate of 10.7%, better than the NFL average of 11.7%.
However, Burrow throws a ton of passes, as the market has his pass attempts prop at 37.5. More passes means a greater chance of throwing a pick.
My model gives a 58.2% chance that Burrow throws a pick against Seattle, and this suggests value in over 0.5 interceptions (available at -105 at DraftKings, although the price was +105 when members of The Power Rank found out about this on Friday).
New England at Las Vegas, NFL Week 6 – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, professional bettor Rob Pizzola argued that New England’s offense is not as bad it seems. Part of their poor performances has been the quality of opposing defense like New Orleans last week.
The Patriots offense should have an easier time with a Las Vegas defense that features Maxx Crosby and ten other no name players. Rob’s model shows the biggest edge with New England +3 at Las Vegas this week .
Arkansas at Alabama, College Football Week 7 – Bob Stoll notes that the Arkansas offense has been poor this season and even worse without star TE Luke Hasz. Alabama has an elite defense, and Bob’s model expects 10 points for Arkansas.
The Arkansas defense has been 1.0 yards per play better than average by Bob’s metrics, and they should hold Alabama to 29 points. Bob leans towards under 45.5 points in Arkansas at Alabama.
Check out all of Bob’s free analysis over at Dr. Bob Sports.
Justin Jefferson – Minnesota’s all world wide receiver went to injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. How should this affect the spread?
To quantify injuries to NFL players, Ben Fawkes polled six odds makers and averaged the results. Jefferson was worth 1.67 points and in an elite tier with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Note that his absence might mean less this week against an injury riddled Chicago secondary.
Check out the full list of impact players as well as the same study on quarterbacks.
NFL humor – Matt Canada, Sean Payton, the Miami Hurricanes, Urban Meyer: Annie Agar spares no one in her hilarious NFL team meeting, now double the length this season.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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