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NFL interception prop – Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder has thrown one interception in his career. The second year player has a 0.5% interception rate over 203 attempts.
However, interception rate is not a good predictor of future interceptions. Instead, my research has shown the utility of looking at bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended.
Ridder has a bad ball rate of 13.8%, worse than the NFL average of 11.6% since the start of the 2020 season. However, even if we assume Ridder is NFL average at throwing interceptions, my model gives a 48.9% chance he throws a pick against Jacksonville in London.
There is value in Ridder over 0.5 interceptions, +144 at FanDuel. Members of The Power Rank have access to other NFL interception props for week 4.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans, NFL Week 4 – On the Forward Progress podcast, an All-Star line up of betting professionals made the case for the Saints.
- Hitman does not consider Jameis Winston much of a downgrade from Derek Carr, who is questionable due to a shoulder injury.
- Rob Pizzola noted the strength of the New Orleans defense and likes that RB Alvin Camara is back for the offense.
- Dr. Eric Eager doesn’t think that Philadelphia is that good, and Tampa Bay got thumped by the Eagles last week.
The entire panel does not always agree on a side, but they like New Orleans. As of Saturday morning, you can grab New Orleans -3, -118 at DraftKings.
Catch Forward Progress live every Wednesday on YouTube for invaluable NFL information and bets.
The Unabated line – Based on the polling of sharp bettors, the Unabated line aggregates the market at sharp sports books. I’ve found it to be an excellent predictor of market movement.
For example, the Unabated line had Pittsburgh -3, +109 at Houston yesterday when I posted it for members. Since then, DraftKings and FanDuel moved from -2.5 to -3.
Here are some insights from the Unabated line.
- CFB: USC -22, +100 at Colorado. The markets are leaning against Coach Prime hype, as USC -21.5 is still available for this noon Eastern kickoff.
- NFL: Philadelphia -9.5, +101 vs Washington. The Eagles haven’t looked great, but they host Washington. FanDuel has Philadelphia -8.5 as of Saturday morning.
- NFL: Denver -3, -109 at Chicago. It might make you throw up to bet it, but there is probably value in Chicago +3.5, -118 (DraftKings and FanDuel).
Do you make this mistake in predicting football? As an analytics person, you know better than to judge based on a small sample size. But do you know why this is so difficult?
The most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show digs into the cognitive science behind our tenuous relationship with randomness. I give you lots of examples, both old and new. I hope it feels like a short audiobook, but replacing the boredom with music.
NFL humor – This is ESPN these days. Someone complains about something getting too much attention, only to bring it more attention (if that’s possible). Mad Dog is entertaining though.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
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