Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL player prop – Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill has had an interception rate of 2.2% the past three season, a tick better than the NFL average of 2.3%. However, my research has shown that bad ball rate, which considers passes defended in addition to interceptions, is a better predictor of future interceptions.
Tannehill has had a bad ball rate of 13.3% the past three seasons, significantly worse than the NFL average of 11.6%. Based on the 30.5 pass attempts in the prop market, I project a 55.7% chance he throws an interception against New Orleans.
In addition, my member numbers favor New Orleans by 4.1 points, which means Tennessee is more likely to be down late in the game. These negative game scripts increase the chance of a pick, so 55.7% is an underestimate.
This implies value in Tannehill over 0.5 interceptions, -105 at DraftKings.
NFL Week 1 bet – On this week’s episode of The Football Analytics Show, Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports discussed a teaser bet.
- Washington -1 (from -7) vs Arizona.
- Miami +9 (from +3) at Los Angeles Chargers.
In the first leg, Arizona has yet to announce whether Clayton Tune or Josh Dobbs will start at QB. The Cardinals are a disaster and made it worse by trading safety Isaiah Simmons, their best defensive player.
In the second leg, Adam loves that Vic Fangio now coordinates Miami’s defense, and this helps Miami keep this game close. In addition, the Los Angeles Chargers have little home field advantage.
Adam also talked about how his NFL process has changed this season and broke down Dallas, Houston and Atlanta among other teams in a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show.
Unabated line – You know the market is a fantastic predictor. But which sports books are the best in a specific sport? How can you use this information?
Based on polling sharp bettors, Unabated has determined the best sports books in each sport. The Unabated line presents a weighted average of these sharp books.
Here are some results of the Unabated line as of Saturday morning.
- Texas A&M -3, -102 at Miami. The sharp consensus suggests the spread should be a field goal. While many books had Texas A&M -3.5 on Friday night, they have moved to -3.
- Iowa -4, +102 at Iowa State. This suggests value in Iowa -3.5, -108 at DraftKings if you have other reasons to like the Hawkeyes.
Unabated has a host of software tools to help you win at sports betting.
Nebraska at Colorado – Coach Prime and Colorado stunned the football world with an upset at TCU as a 21 point underdog. Bob Stoll notes that the pass offense with excellent, as four receivers had 117 yards or more.
However, Colorado was not as good against the run, allowing 7.1 yards per rushing play. Bob expects Nebraska to run the ball instead of throwing it with inconsistent QB Jeff Sims. In addition, Nebraska’s defense was good against Minnesota, allowing 3.7 yards per play.
Bob was impressed with Colorado, and he now rates them 3.2 points better than average. On a preseason episode of The Football Analytics Show, he said that he had Colorado consistent with the markets, and my market rankings had Colorado 4.6 points worse than average.
Bob’s numbers predict a 1 point win against Nebraska, although Nebraska +2.5 was not one of his best bets. Check out his college football analysis every week over at Dr. Bob Sports.
NFL humor – Anyone else have Kansas City side and watch that pass sail right through the hands of Kadarius Toney for a pick six?
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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