It is easy for Michigan fans to dream this season. QB JJ McCarthy returns for his second year as a starter, and he has the talent to win the Heisman.
Even if McCarthy doesn’t reach this ceiling, consider how Michigan’s QB situation compares with other top contenders.
- Georgia will start redshirt sophomore Carson Beck, who has 58 career pass attempts. They also replaced OC Todd Monken with former OC Mike Bobo.
- Ohio State will start Kyle McCord against Indiana on Saturday, but he has not won the job over Devin Brown.
- Alabama is considering Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner at QB heading into their first game.
In addition, Alabama and Ohio State lost their QB to the first two overall picks of the NFL draft. Georgia will no longer have Stetson Bennett, the most accomplished QB in program history with back to back championships.
Right now, Michigan has a better QB situation than these teams. In 2023, this is the true source of dreams for Michigan fans, a group that I’m a part of here in Ann Arbor.
Then, the preseason AP poll put Michigan at #2. That is most likely too high, as Michigan does have concerns.
The offense should be great to exceptional. Michigan will be able to bludgeon inferior opponents with the run game. They should have an exceptional offensive line and one of the best RB tandems in college football with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.
The question is how much the offense lets McCarthy throw to receivers, a relative weakness on this team. WRs Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson return but need to improve on their total of 57 receptions from 2022.
The defense was good enough last season, but they ranked only 32nd in my success rate adjusted for opponent. Now, they must replace the leading pass rusher and two cornerbacks.
CB Will Johnson will be fantastic, but Michigan has questions at the opposite CB position. Edge Jaylen Harrell returns after having the second highest tackle for loss and sack totals last year, but the defense will need another pass rusher to emerge.
For the second year in a row, Michigan faces an out of conference schedule softer than a baby’s bottom. The early conference games are only marginally more challenging. Michigan should be 9-0 heading into a road trip to Penn State. They end with Ohio State at home in Ann Arbor.
To justify 2nd in the preseason poll, Michigan must make the championship game. The market at Caesars implies a 44% chance to make the playoff.
Let’s assume that Michigan has a 50-50 chance to win the playoff semi-final. That leaves roughly a 1 in 5 chance that Michigan lives up to #2.
Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama all have higher national championship odds because of program history. For example, consider what Bob Stoll said on the last episode of The Football Analytics Show.
By his compensated yards per play, Georgia has had a top 10 offense in five of the past six seasons. They have started three different QBs during this tenure. He doesn’t expect that to change with Carson Beck.
While Michigan should definitely be a top 5 team, they are overrated at #2 in the preseason poll.
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This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at noon Eastern on Wednesday, August 30, 2023. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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