Your weekly curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL season player prop – On the Forward Progress podcast, pro bettor Hitman notes that Cleveland will most like throw more, as they parted ways with RB Kareem Hunt and added to the WR corp in the off season. In addition, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards total might be deflated, as he played in two games last season in which severe weather limited his ability to gain passing yards.
As Watson continues to acclimate to Cleveland, Hitman sees value in over 3650.5 passing yards (-120 is available at DraftKings). He likes this bet up to 3800.5 yards. Follow Hitman on Twitter for all of his insights and knowledge.
Baseball player prop – Noah Syndergaard has played for four different MLB teams the last two seasons, and a recent trade brought him to Cleveland from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Over the past few seasons, he continues to lose velocity on his sinker, the pitch he throws the most.
A predictive model that considers Syndergaard’s strikeout rate and the handedness of the opposing lineup predicts 2.92 strikeouts against the Chicago White Sox today. The markets have his strikeout prop at 4.5, and he has gone over in only 3 of 13 starts this season.
This all suggests value in Syndergaard under 4.5 strikeouts, and -140 is available at FanDuel.
Sweden vs United States – Despite the struggles to score goals for the United States, the women are still the favorite to advance past a very good Sweden team. Pinnacle has a 60.8% break even probability for the USWNT to make the quarterfinals.
The markets expect a low scoring game, as they heavily favor under 2.5 goals. This makes it more likely to have 0 or 2 totals goals, both an even number of goals.
Pinnacle has a break even probability of 55.2% for an even number of total goals, and this suggests value in -115 for even total goals on DraftKings (go to the game and look under Game Props). Even total goals is a way to have action as you’re only ever a goal away from winning (or losing).
Penn State – Over the last six full seasons, the Nittany Lions have the following records:
- 15-3 against the Big Ten West
- 21-4 outside of the Big Ten
- 21-3 against the Big Ten East outside of Michigan and Ohio State
- 3-9 against Ohio State and Michigan
In 2023, Bill Connelly has Penn State ranked 8th in his preseason SP rankings, behind Ohio State (2nd) and Michigan (3rd). However, he notes Penn State might challenge for the Big Ten East because of the enormous upside that comes with a talented crop of sophomores.
The biggest question mark is at QB. After a mercifully end of the Sean Clifford era, the pressure now falls on sophomore Drew Allar, the 6’5″ 242 pound playmaker with the huge arm.
Bill’s previews of every FBS team are a critical part of my college football process. His analysis makes a subscription to ESPN+ worth it.
College football humor – Yesterday, insider Brett McMurphy reported that the Pac-12 was going to stay together.
Twelve hours later, Arizona along with Arizona State and Utah joined the Big 12.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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