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Baseball strikeout prop – Justin Verlander has had a Hall of Fame career, but age catches up with even the best. With Houston in 2018, Verlander posted 12.2 strikeouts per 9 innings, a career high. His rate has dropped every season since, and the 40 year old has a strikeout rate of 7.7 with the New York Mets in 2023.
The markets have Verlander at 6.5 strikeout against San Francisco today, and he has gone over this total in two of ten games this season. There is value in under 6.5 strikeouts for Verlander (-112 at FanDuel).
San Francisco 49ers – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, Edward Egros, professor at Pepperdine University and co-host of BetQL Daily, gave multiple reasons for fading the Niners in 2023.
First, Edward doesn’t have confidence at QB. Brock Purdy looked great last season but only in a small sample size. Trey Lance’s play has not suggested the promise of the 3rd overall pick.
The schedule also doesn’t favor the Niners, as San Francisco faces four teams coming off a bye. As a part of fading the Niners, Edward likes under 10.5 (+125 at DraftKings).
Carolina Panthers – ClevTA is one of the sharpest NFL quantitative bettors, and he made the case for New Orleans -3, -120 against Carolina on week 14 of the regular season. While there is no longer value at -3.5, he did make some important points about Carolina’s offense.
The talking heads want to compare rookie QB Bryce Young with other short QBs such as Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Drew Brees, but ClevTA disagrees:
- Young doesn’t have the playmaking ability with his feet of Wilson and Murray, as he had 162 total rushing yards in 34 career college games.
- Young might become as good a pocket passer as Brees, but the latter struggled in his first three years in the NFL with more interceptions than touchdowns.
In addition, Young’s top receiver will either be an aging Adam Thielan or D.J. Chark, neither of which will have explosive potential in 2023. It will be a struggle for Carolina’s offense.
I use ClevTA’s NFL Preview as part of my preseason process, and I highly recommend following him on Twitter so you can grab this free resource when it becomes available.
College football surprise team – On the Cover 3 College Football podcast, they posed the question of which college football team outside the top 10 has the best chance to win a national title. Bud Elliott made the case for Notre Dame because of the following factors:
- Star QB Sam Hartman, a transfer from Wake Forest, should immediately improve the passing game.
- Cornerbacks Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart are elite players that will anchor the defense.
Bud did not bet Notre Dame to win a national championship, but he sees a high variance team that could surprise people. Follow Bud on Twitter for all of his college football betting insights.
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