Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Baseball hit props – Betscope notes a general weakness in the MLB player prop market: hits. The sports betting tool from Colin Davy show many split markets in player hits.
For example, Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna Jr has a hit prop of 0.5 at Barstool but 1.5 many other books. Acuna has a batting average of .327 this season, a career high by a large margin. Randomness plays a bigger role in batting average than other hitter stats like on base percentage.
This suggests value in Acuna under 1.5 hits (-167 at BetMGM but also -170 at DraftKings) against Colorado. However, the real value is in using Betscope to find value across all MLB games.
International soccer predictions – These predictions come from my world soccer/football rankings that considers match results since 2019 and adjust for opponent with my ranking algorithm. These Nations League finals on Sunday will feature all the top players, so I expect these predictions to be accurate.
- Croatia vs Spain – Croatia has a 25.8% chance to win. Spain has a 47.4% chance to win. There is a 26.8% chance for a tie.
Spain has a 60.9% to win the UEFA Nations League, but Croatia has shown a remarkable ability to persist and advance, such as their win in penalties against Brazil in the 2022 World Cup. Pinnacle has a 62.9% break even probability for a Spain win.
- United States hosting Canada – United States has a 50.1% chance to win. Canada has a 24.3% chance to win. There is a 25.6% chance for a tie.
Pinnacle has a 46.0% break even probability for the US to win in regulation. The absence of US stars Weston McKinnie and Sergino Dest because of red cards may account for the difference between my numbers and the markets.
My numbers give a 63.0% chance for the United States to win the CONCACAF Nations League.
US Open Golf – Scottie Scheffler has shot -5 over the first two rounds at the Los Angeles Country Club. While he is five strokes behind the leader Rickie Fowler, don’t count out the world’s best golfer just yet.
On a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show, Will Courchene, founder of Data Golf, explained how putting has more randomness than other aspects of golf like hitting off the tee. Scheffler has struggled with his putting but been fantastic with his drives.
Will explained how they incorporate this into their predictive model, which gives Scheffler a 8.4% chance to win the US Open as of Saturday morning. The markets are even stronger on Scheffler (+700).
Colorado at Atlanta, MLB – Baseball provides a multitude of player prop bets, from strikeouts to hits to home runs. How do you find value, especially without following the game closely?
Betscope looks across a multitude of sports books to find the weakest markets. For example, Colorado’s Connor Seabold has a strikeout prop of 3.5 at DraftKings but 5.5 at Barstool. It is extremely unlikely that both books have the correct price on this prop.
Seabold has averaged 7.3 strikeouts per 9 innings in his short career, so getting to five innings pitched should result in four or more strikeouts. He has done this in four of his last five starts. This suggests value on over 3.5 strikeouts for Connor Seabold, -105 at DraftKings.
NFL humor – Establish the Run knew that Minnesota would release Dalvin Cook and made this hilarious song inspired by Hamilton.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.
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