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PGA Championship – Scott Scheffler is only tied for the lead, as Victor Hovland and Corey Conners are also at -5 through two rounds. However, other pre-tourney favorites like Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele have faded.
After two rounds, Data Golf gives Scheffler a 42.4% chance to win the PGA Championship. As of Saturday morning, FanDuel has Scheffler at +150 (break even probability of 40%), a price that was +160 on Friday night.
The Data Golf predictions suggest value at Scheffler +150 to win the PGA Championship.
Preakness – In previous version of 5-Nuggets, Mike Somich of VSIN landed a big winner in Mage (18-1 when the newsletter went out). A few weeks later, Mage is now the favorite at the Preakness, and he will face seven horses not featured at the Kentucky Derby.
Mike still likes Mage to win, as he notes that the horse was only whipped once in the final straight at the Kentucky Derby and has worked out well since then. Mage is currently 8-5 at FanDuel Racing.
If you do need an underdog, Mike talked about Perform on You Better You Bet. The results have not been there, but Perform is a talented horse. This sounds like the same kind of high variance horse that Mike pegged Mage as before the Kentucky Derby. Perform is 15-1 to win the Preakness.
USFL – In 2020, NFL teams scored a record number of points. Empty stadiums meant that offenses had an advantage as players could hear the QB with clarity.
The USFL has a similar situation in Detroit due to a lack of fan support. With the team hub system, multiple teams share a home field, and games at Ford Field have been empty.
This advantage for the offense is one reason Right Angle Sports (RAS) released over 45 earlier this week on New Orleans vs Philadelphia at Ford Field. The total no longer has any value at 48.
However, the insight about more points at an empty Ford Field also applies when Philadelphia plays Michigan on Sunday, June 18. To get their free USFL plays, check out the RAS Discord channel.
NFL bad ball rate – Dallas QB Dak Prescott has been one of the NFL’s best, but he struggled through the 2022 season. His 3.7% interception rate was by far the worst of his career (2.3% NFL average in 2022).
Did Dak get unlucky in 2022? While interception rate is not predictive, my research has shown that you can do better in predicting picks by expanding the set of plays.
The NFL play by play tracks pass defended, or an incomplete pass in which a defender gets a hand on the ball or jars it loose with a hit. Bad ball rate, or interceptions and pass defended divided by pass attempts, is predictive.
Unfortunately, Dak had a poor bad ball rate in 2022 (13.2% compared to the NFL average of 12.2%). However, his 3 year rate of 11.4% is NFL average.
Maybe Dak had lingering issues with a thumb injury that caused him to put a higher rate of passes in dangerous positions. Or he had issues with now departed OC Kellen Moore. No matter the issues, Dak’s interception rate should regress to NFL average in 2023.
To check out all my data on NFL bad ball rate, click here.
Soccer humor – A Spanish TV host started his show with three minutes of silence after Real Madrid’s loss to Manchester City. I now expect Pat McAfee to have 6 minutes of silence when Aaron Rodgers and the Jets end their season, which should make for an outstanding podcast.
Please do not watch the entire clip. I can confirm that the host does not speak.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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