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Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers – Pro bettor Drew Martin notes that the Angels have been playing well, winning three of four games. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, two of the best players in baseball, power a lineup ranked in the top 10 by wRC+ (weighted runs created adjusted for ballpark).
Los Angeles will go with lefty Reid Detmers, a former first round pick that has posted a 13/2 strikeout to walk ratio his past two starts. In contrast, Milwaukee will start Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young Award winner whose strikeout rate has plummeted this season.
Drew has been looking to fade Burnes and likes Los Angeles +130 (DraftKings). Follow Drew Martin on Twitter for the MLB bets that he posts.
Jordan Poole threes – On Friday night, Golden State failed to close out Sacramento at home. A win for the Kings lets them host Game 7 at home, and they are a slim 1.5 point underdog to the defending champions.
Jordan Poole has struggled from three in this series, going 7 of 29. This 24.1% rate is lower than his season average of 33.6%.
The fourth year player out of Michigan does not lack for confidence though. Poole will get his shots, and some positive regression in his three point shooting percentage suggests value in over 1.5 threes (-128 at FanDuel).
European club soccer predictions – These predictions come from xG at FBRef.com adjusted for schedule with The Power Rank algorithm. Let’s look at some key domestic matches in England and Germany.
- Fulham hosting Manchester City – Fulham has a 13.3% chance to win. Manchester City has a 67.5% chance to win. There is a 19.2% chance for a tie. The markets are way higher on Man City, as Pinnacle has a break even probability of 81.5% for a win. The match is on Sunday.
- Arsenal hosting Chelsea – Arsenal has a 57.3% chance to win. Chelsea has a 19.9% chance to win. There is a 22.8% chance for a tie. Arsenal has a two point edge at the top of the Premier League table over Man City right now, and three points in this match on Tuesday would be ideal.
- Bayern Munich hosting Hertha BSC – Bayern Munich has a 74.3% chance to win. Hertha BSC has a 9.5% chance to win. There is a 16.2% chance for a tie. Dortmund tied Bochum on Friday, which means a win for Bayern will put them back into first in the Bundesliga by a point. The markets are higher than my numbers, as Pinnacle has a 89.2% break even probability for a Bayern win.
The Detroit Lions draft – To evaluate how teams did in the first round of the NFL draft, Anthony Reinhard made this visual that compares where a player got picked to the consensus big boards, or a wisdom of crowds estimate of talent. For example, New England crushed it as CB Christian Gonzalez fell to them at 17.
In contrast, Detroit picked RB Jahmyr Gibbs at 12th as the 25th best player on the consensus big board. According to Grinding the Mocks, there were two mock drafts out of thousands that had Gibbs taken before 12th.
In contrast, the Lions were quite excited about Gibbs (see the next nugget).
NFL humor – After making a pick, most teams hug it out like they picked Patrick Mahomes. Lions GM Brad Holmes took his excitement to the next level of a Super Bowl win after the Gibbs pick at 12th.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.
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