Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and wisdom, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Las Vegas, position of first pick – The Raiders have the 7th pick in the NFL draft, and they have a host of needs ranging from a long term solution at QB to offensive line.
However, FanDuel suggests they will go in a different direction. In the market for the 7th pick, they have two cornerbacks at the top:
- Christian Gonzalez +250
- Devon Witherspoon +350
The sum of the break even probability for these two players is 50.7%. Assuming that they don’t trade the pick, this suggests value on Las Vegas to take a cornerback at +175 at DraftKings.
I talked about this bet on Monday on the Covering the Spread podcast, but I feel more confident in it now that the FanDuel market for the 7th pick hasn’t budged all week.
Hendon Hooker draft position – Pro bettor Hitman notes that a large number of respected insiders think Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker goes in the first round. These people include Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager, James Palmer and Ian Rappaport. It really does seem like the NFL Network has a monopoly on trusted draft sources.
Based on this information, Hitman thinks that Hooker is more likely to go in the first round than not. This suggests value on +100. You can also take advantage of this insight with over 4.5 quarterbacks in the first round (+102 at FanDuel now but given out to members of The Power Rank at +144).
Offensive linemen in the first round – As we get closer to the NFL draft on Thursday, April 27, some events get way more certain. It’s not surprising to see markets move into the -400 territory.
On the 5th Year Option podcast, draft expert Drew Dinsick thinks that the number offensive linemen is one of these markets. He thinks over 5.5 should be priced at -900. FanDuel has -440, which suggest value on -380 at DraftKings.
The episode of the 5th Year Option is particularly good, as Luke (@VegasRefund) summarized all the key points from a podcast with respected insiders Daniel Jeremiah and Peter Schrager. For example, Jeremiah will have Syracuse OT Matthew Bergeron in the first round in his final mock draft.
Arsenal at Manchester City, Premier League – Arsenal holds a five point edge over Manchester City, but the latter has played two fewer games. Arsenal would have a bigger lead if not for a tie against last place Southampton on Friday.
Based on xG on FBRef.com adjusted for schedule by least squares, here is my prediction for their critical match on Wednesday.
- Manchester City hosting Arsenal – Manchester City has a 54.8% chance to win. Arsenal has a 23.8% chance to win. There is a 21.4% chance for a tie.
The market at Pinnacle like the favorite even more, as Manchester City has a 65% break even probability to win at home.
NFL draft humor – The draft will make you look silly, as this footage 2014 on Johnny Manziel shows. If you don’t have two minutes, start at 1:03 with the infinite wisdom Skip Bayless, who reportedly makes $8 million a year as a commentator.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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