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LSU at Florida, college basketball – Drew Martin of SportsGrid notes that Florida has lost six of their last eight games, giving up more than 80 points in three of their last four. The injury to Colin Castleton in these four games has hurt the Gators.
Florida struggles both rebounding and shooting, ranking near or at the bottom of the conference in both categories since the loss of Castleton. The “O Dome” can be a tough place to play, but Florida is in a down spin and should not be asked to cover a big number.
LSU comes into Gainsville at the bottom of the SEC standings. However, the Bayou Bengals have not quit on first year head coach Matt McMahon. The Tigers have played teams close of late, even getting their first conference outright win last week.
Drew likes when terrible teams become decent because they stay under the radar. He sent me LSU +8.5 on Friday night, and he still thinks there is value on LSU +7.5. Follow Drew Martin on Twitter where he posts college basketball bets and write ups.
NBA assists prop – Alperen Senguin is a 20 year old Turkish center in his second season with the Houston Rockets. He has had a promising season, averaging 14.8 points and 8.6 rebounds as the starter.
However, Betscope notices some value on his assist prop. While most books have him at 4.5 assists, FanDuel has Senguin at 5.5. The season average of 3.9 assists for Senguin suggests value on under 5.5 assists, -156.
College basketball predictions – These are predictions can be calculated from The Power Rank member college basketball rankings page, currently available for free to the public.
- Tennessee will beat Auburn by 4.4 points on the road. Tennessee lost point guard Zakai Zeigler for the season this week. There should be an adjustment, but probably not one that makes Auburn the favorite.
- Texas will beat Kansas by 1.0 at home. The Jayhawks should get a 1 seed in the tournament. They are the better team in this game, but home court makes Texas the favorite.
- Indiana will beat Michigan by 3.7 at home, Sunday March 5. After years of struggles with their shooting, Indiana is making 37.8% of their threes this season, 19th best in the nation. Expect a little regression, as Miller Kopp is making 46.2% from three, by far a career high.
NCAA tournament win probabilities – My interactive visual shows the probability for each team to advance through each round of the tournament. These numbers come from my points based college basketball team rankings, and the bracket is taken from ESPN on Friday.
Houston has the highest win probability, but a 2 seed UCLA has the second highest probability. Led by veterans Jamie Jaquez and Tiger Campbell, this team has won nine games in a row.
UCLA plays outstanding defense, as they rank first in my adjusted points per possession. My member numbers like UCLA by 3.1 points over Arizona, another national title contender, at home on Saturday.
College basketball humor – Fran McCaffery’s therapist told him not to yell at the referees. Instead, the Iowa coach did this.
After the stare down, Iowa came back from 10 down with 1:29 left in the game and beat Michigan State in overtime.
March Madness cheat sheet
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