Minnesota is the definition of a fraud. The Vikings scored 3 fewer points than their opponents this season. Usually, a team like this has a .500 record.
Instead, Minnesota finished 13-4 this season and contended for the top seed in the NFC until the final weekend. They went an unthinkable 11-0 in one score games.
When a team starts the season 6-0 in one score games, quants like myself predict regression to the mean of .500 in these games. In a close game, one play can swing the outcome, and these critical plays bring a large random element into these games.
The regression prediction didn’t work out for the Vikings this season.
It’s not like the New York Giants are Warren Buffet compared to the fraud Minnesota. They had a -6 point differential for the season but 9-7-1 record. The Giants went 9-4 in one score games.
Rookie coach Brian Daboll has done a remarkable job with QB Daniel Jones. RB Saquon Barkley has had a solid season, but the Giants don’t boast any kind of talent at WR.
When the Giants have the ball, throwing it will be weakness on weakness. Here are how these two teams rank by my passing success rate adjusted for opponent.
- New York Giants – 21st pass offense
- Minnesota – 27th pass defense
It gets better when Minnesota has the ball. Thank you, Justin Jefferson.
- Minnesota – 11th pass offense
- New York Giants – 17th pass defense
One of these teams will win, and it should be the Vikings. I’d lean towards them -3 at home.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 12:30pm Eastern on Thursday, January 12, 2023. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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