This is a sample of my member predictions that have picked the winner straight up in 73.4% of games this season (533-193). For comparison, the closing spread in the markets has a rate of 72.5%.
Michigan will beat TCU by 8.8 points – The market has moved from Michigan -9.5 at open to -7.5 now. While the public has overrated TCU this season, the markets have usually been spot on.
While USC QB Caleb Williams ran away with the Heisman, we did get a sense for the recency bias in the voting. TCU QB Max Duggan never had high market odds to win during the regular season. However, he ended up second in the voting after a heroic performance in a loss to Kansas State.
LSU will beat Purdue by 4.8 points – LSU QB Jayden Daniels was hobbled in the SEC championship game with an ankle injury. He is questionable for this game but has weeks to recover.
Purdue had a better success rate (45.2%) than Michigan (44.6%) in the Big Ten championship game.
Utah will beat Penn State by 0.2 points – Penn State had a sneaky good season.
For example, despite a 44-31 loss to Ohio State, Penn State had more yards and a better success rate in that game. A -4 turnover margin doomed them in that game.
Texas will beat Washington by 3.1 points – Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. led the third best pass offense in the nation in my adjusted success rate. He will play in this game and next season for the Huskies.
Georgia Southern will beat Buffalo by 0.8 points – Georgia Southern had a huge win over Nebraska this season. However, Clay Helton’s team only managed a 3-5 Sun Belt record.
Georgia Southern should be favored against Buffalo, but it seems strange that they would get picked by 75% of people in pools on ESPN. This is an opportunity in your bowl pool.
Become a member of The Power Rank
If you want to win your bowl pool, you need both analytics and strategy. I have you covered in both areas.
The Power Rank 2022 Bowl Season Report has a cheat sheet for you to fill out your bracket by my numbers. Some adjustments have been made due to transfers and opt outs.
In addition, I provide you with strategies based on the size of your pool. Sometimes, you need to go contrarian, and I identify these games based on my metrics. Members get access to this bowl pool advice.
In addition, new members this week will get entered into a drawing for a copy of Net Gains, the excellent book on soccer and analytics by Ryan O’Hanlon. I loved this book, and I think it’s essential reading for anyone interested in data or soccer.
Learn more about becoming a member of The Power Rank.
The Power Rank 2022 Bowl Season Report is also available as a separate product. To learn more about the drop dead simple purchase procedure on Gumroad (no login, just email and credit card), click here.
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