Members: Football analysis for November 5-6, 2022

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Bottom up plus top down

Over at Unabated, their odds screen has the Unabated line, which comes from sharp sports books with a track record of accuracy in a particular sport. Using the Unabated line is a top down approach that looks at sharp books as a source of truth and tries to pick off square books before they move.

Here, I’ve taken every college football spread or total that differs from the Unabated line by more than a point and also agrees with my member numbers.

For example, the Unabated line has Kentucky -1.5 at Missouri. This suggests value on Missouri +2.5, and so does The Power Rank prediction (Missouri to win outright by 1.1 points).

Here are some interesting games that I wrote down as of noon Eastern on Tuesday. This line was available at DaftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM. (After the games, I noted games with closing line value and whether the game won or lost based on the market price.)

• Missouri +2.5 vs Kentucky (TPR -1.1), closed +1, lost.
• Marshall at Old Dominion over 45.5 (TPR 48.8), closed 46.5, lost.
• Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech under 63.5 (TPR 59.6), lost.
• UTSA +0.5 at UAB (TPR -2.3), closed -1.5, won.
• New Mexico +16.5 at Utah State (TPR +13.6), closed +14.5, lost.
• South Alabama at Georgia Southern over 59.5 (TPR 64.2), closed 60.5, won.
• Louisiana Monroe -1 vs Texas State (TPR -2.5), closed -2.5, push.
• Troy at Louisiana over 43 (TPR 46.0), lost.
• Houston at SMU under 67 (TPR 63.5), closed 65.5, lost.
• UNLV at San Diego State under 49 (TPR 43.7), closed 46.5, won.
• South Carolina at Vanderbilt over 47.5 (TPR 50.0), closed 49.5, won.
• UCLA at Arizona State under 66.5 (TPR 60.9), lost.
• Hawaii +27.5 at Fresno State (TPR +19.4), lost.

I’ll track both closing line movement and win rate for these games. I don’t think you can see the Unabated line without a subscription, but you can learn more about all of their services here.

NFL insights from passing success rate (audio)

In this audio episode, I talked about my research into which NFL metrics are the most predictive. I often talk about pass offense and say that pass defense isn’t that predictive. Here are the results to back that up.

In addition, I did a deep dive into Green Bay and Tampa Bay on offense. I don’t think either offense is great, but they are probably undervalued at this point.

To check out the audio episode on NFL passing success rate, click on “Download.”

Download

Florida at Texas A&M under 55.5

Florida is lucky to have a 4-4 record.

They need a last minute interception in the opener against Utah, a team that is good (12th in my member rankings). They struggled to a three point win over South Florida, a team that is far from good (113th).

Anthony Richardson has clear potential, and the Florida QB at one point this season had the fourth highest odds to be the first pick of the 2023 NFL draft (14-1). He has ability to break explosive runs with his legs, as Florida is 3rd in my yards per carried adjusted for schedule.

However, Richardson has struggled throwing the football. Florida’s offense is 89th in my adjusted passing success rate. They face a stiff test in Texas A&M, a pass defense ranks 7th in adjusted passing success rate.

Texas A&M has lost four games in a row. They are now on their third QB of the season. Haynes King, the player with the most unique throwing motion in college football, suffered a dislocated shoulder against South Carolina that had to be popped back into place.

True freshman Conner Weigman took over, and he struggled to 91 passing yards on 15 attempts. He did much better last week against Mississippi, as he threw for 338 yards, 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Weigman is a highly touted recruit that potentially can add to the offense with his legs.

After that performance, it seems like Jimbo Fisher will stick with the freshman even if King can play. Florida’s defense is not great (81st in my adjusted success rate), but I don’t like a Texas A&M offense with a third string freshman QB to score many points.

My member predictions have 50.2 total points in this game, and I like under 55.5 points.