Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
PGA Championship win probabilities – Will Zalatoris always seems to show up at the majors. In the 25 year old’s short career, he has four top 10 finishes at majors, which includes a 2nd at the 2021 Masters.
Zalatoris is looking to break through at the PGA Championship. After two rounds, he leads the field at -9. On Saturday morning, FanDuel has his win odds at +230 (30.3% break even probability).
Mito Pereira (-8) is in second, but the markets give Justin Thomas (-6) the second best odds to win at +380 (20.8% break even probability).
The art of bookmaking – When Matt Metcalf first got hired at a sports book, he had one firm belief. Unlike other Las Vegas books, he wasn’t going to open a number, take some bets, and then move towards the market consensus.
Instead, Matt decided that he needed an idea of where the market was headed no matter what appeared on the Don Best screen. In his early days, he challenged himself to book without looking at the market consensus.
On a fantastic episode of The Football Analytics Show, Matt also discussed how he opens the first college football spreads and totals on Sunday morning and the one thing he would change in the sports betting world.
NBA Injuries – Miami has a few players who are questionable to play Game 3 at Boston:
- forward P.J. Tucker (knee)
- guard Max Strus (hamstring)
- guard Gabe Vincent (hamstring)
- point guard Kyle Lowry (hamstring)
Lowery hasn’t played since game 4 against the Sixers in the last series, but the other three player logged significant minutes in game 2.
Boston forward Sam Hauser will not play Game 3 because of a shoulder injury.
Golden State guard Gary Payton II continues to be doubtful to play in the Western Conference Finals.
NFL Strength of Schedule – Last week on the Nuggets, we discussed which teams earned advantages based on rest relative to opponents. But, there are two added dimensions to unequal schedules: how much more traveling some teams must endure and how challenging the home schedule is.
NFL Data Scientist Tom Bliss analyzed all 32 schedules and concluded Philadelphia has the most advantageous schedule. There may be value in taking the Eagles at +210 (FanDuel) to win the NFC East.
The New York Giants, Detroit and Chicago round out the top four. While they all have long odds to win their divisions, making the playoffs or going over their win totals might make more sense.
Preakness Stakes – Epicenter won’t have to worry about Rich Strike stealing his thunder this time! Just like in the Kentucky Derby, Epicenter is the morning line favorite, now at 6-5. Drawing post 8 may also seem like it would help this colt, as there is likely less traffic to slow down a push to the front.
However, Neil Greenberg made a compelling case why Simplification may be a more prudent bet at 6-1, despite starting at post 1. Normally starting on the inside is often problematic because there’s no room to run and not enough early speed to take an early lead. However, at the Preakness, no one post position has a significantly bigger advantage than another.
Also, if you firmly believe the longshot can win again, Fenwick is 50-1.
How a betting group comes together – As Mark DeRosa walked to his car, he noticed a guy was following him. This guy with blond hair didn’t look that threatening, but he did seem to be getting closer.
It also seemed a little creepy that Mark had seen this guy in sports books around Las Vegas. Mark put his hand on the mace that he carried.
This encounter was the first time Rufus Peabody talked with his future betting partner Mark. An episode of The Risk of Ruin podcast tells the story of this betting group. While it features interviews with Mark and Rufus, Risk of Ruin feels like listening to This American Life in its production value.
Them’s Fightin’ Words – Alabama head coach Nick Saban and Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher–who used to work for Saban–got into a public spat over NILs this week. Saban claimed the Aggies “bought every player” in their prized recruiting class, and Fisher responded by insinuating Saban has a checkered past with recruiting, he thinks he’s God and he should be slapped.
Until college football figures out its future in this NIL era, the good folks at SEC Shorts want to keep fanning the flame.
Data driven betting information
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