Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NBA Preseason – Why bring up meaningless games when we’re in the playoffs? It turns out, preseason games are not meaningless.
Kostya Medvedovsky, the creator of DARKO Projections, discovered that both preseason records and net ratings (the team’s point differential per 100 possessions) are predictive for the regular season results and beyond. This idea could also help with betting futures.
For this preseason, teams with undefeated records include Golden State, Chicago and Dallas. As for net rating, the top three are the Mavericks, Bulls and Suns, with the Warriors finishing fifth.
There are two postscripts: with the Devin Booker injury, the value for the Warriors winning the Western Conference has been squeezed out (+120 on FanDuel while Phoenix is +280).
Also, the predictive value of preseason results has also been uncovered in other sports. The highest run differentials posted by Texas and the Los Angeles Angels during Spring Training might have value in the futures market.
Over 4.5 cornerbacks in the 1st round – Cornerback is a critical position in the NFL, and the 2022 draft offers a number of top prospects. (The number after each prospect is the expected draft position according to Grinding the Mocks, a wisdom of crowds predictor).
- Sauce Gardner, Cincinnati, 6.5
- Derek Stingley, LSU, 11.4
- Trent McDuffie, Washington, 17.6
- Andrew Booth, Clemson, 24.8
- Kyler Gordon, Washington, 32.5
- Kaiir Elam, Florida, 33.7
On an episode of Covering the Spread, Ben Brown of PFF talked about how he likes over 4.5 cornerbacks in the first round (+120 at DraftKings). In addition, 70% of sharp mocks collected by The Power Rank has at least five cornerbacks going in the first round.
The top NFL draft pick – Recently, Aiden Hutchinson’s odds to be the first pick of the 2022 NFL draft dropped from -250 to -200 on DraftKings. Drew Dinsick, co-host of NBC’s Bet the Edge podcast, explained why on a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.
Dinsick explained that three parts of the Jacksonville brain trust have differing opinions:
- Defensive coaches want Aiden Hutchinson
- GM Trent Balke wants Travon Walker
- Coach Doug Pederson wants an offensive tackle (Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu)
Walker is now +190 to be the first pick (34.5% break even probability).
Dinsick also talked about his NBA modeling and a new approach to basketball totals on this recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.
NBA Playoff Injuries – Here are some key injury news and notes:
- Phoenix guard Devin Booker will reportedly miss 2-3 weeks with a Grade 1 hamstring strain.
- Boston center Robert Williams III is expected to return on a minutes restriction for Game 3 against Brooklyn.
- Brooklyn point guard Ben Simmons is expected to make his season debut for Game 4 against Boston.
- Dallas guard Luka Doncic is expected to be a game-time decision for Saturday’s Game 4 at Utah.
- Milwaukee forward Khris Middleton to miss the remainder of the Chicago series with a sprained MCL.
- Toronto forward Scottie Barnes is doubtful for Game 4 against Philadelphia with an ankle injury.
The It factor for NFL quarterbacks – The media often talks about the intangibles for a future NFL quarterback. They debate which player has that It factor.
Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, has been scouting college quarterbacks for 17 years. He has a definition of It: Integrated Technique.
On a recent episode of the Matt Waldman’s RSP Cast, he described three aspects of the game a QB must understand to have integrated technique:
- The routes receivers are running
- Favorable and unfavorable leverage with coverage
- Game management based on down, distance and scoreboard
He then made an analogy that relates this It factor to improv music.
Break Up the Mets – As of Friday, the best record in the National League belongs to the New York Mets. They also rank second in run differential in all of Major League Baseball (trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers).
Perhaps what’s more surprising is they’ve done it without their ace pitcher Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled to have another MRI Monday. The Mets pitching staff currently leads the majors in K/9 (10.3), SIERA (2.73) and xwOBA (.289). Then again, having Max Scherzer as your de facto ace, while deGrom recovers, helps.
MLB Newsletter – We are grateful to have a small piece of real estate in your inbox every Saturday morning. We also do not want to overwhelm you with emails (this isn’t a Slack channel, we can restrain our communication).
However, one newsletter to consider adding to your inbox is the MLB Morning Lineup. Not only does it have all of the biggest news and notes from the day before, it embraces sabermetric research.
For instance, this week included the ten nastiest new pitches of the season. Watch out for Nick Martinez’s changeup!
Data driven betting information
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