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SEC players selected in the 1st round – Dr. Eric Eager of PFF made an appearance on The Football Analytics Show podcast to talk about betting the NFL draft. While Dr. Eager has a Ph.D. in applied math, he takes a less quantitative approach with the draft.
For example, he put together a market based mock draft. Instead of informed guessing, this mock draft puts OT Ikem Ekwonu at 3rd because he’s the betting favorite at that position over OT Evan Neal.
Based on this market analysis, Dr. Eager likes over 10.5 SEC players to get selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft (up to a price of -150). This is consistent with Grinding the Mocks, an aggregator of mock drafts by Benjamin Robinson. As of Friday, April 15, this wisdom of crowds tool has 12 SEC players in the first round with another four SEC players in the top 50.
A Lack of Run Support – Betting trends are made to be broken, and nearly all of them deserve context.
Taking the under in every MLB game this season has hit approximately 60% of the time. However, as Dave Tuley pointed out, last Saturday, unders went 13-1-1, largely swaying the overall win rate; if you take out that day, totals are almost evenly split.
It is worth noting the overall slow start for MLB offenses, scoring 4.24 runs per game through Thursday, unlike the 4.53 runs a contest we saw last season (which is roughly average).
NBA Injuries – Here are the key injuries before the start of the playoffs:
- Golden State point guard Stephen Curry could be on a minutes restriction if he does play Game 1 versus Denver.
- Dallas superstar guard Luka Doncic will reportedly miss Game 1 versus Utah with a calf injury.
- Memphis guard Ja Morant is active after missing time with knee soreness.
- Boston center Robert Williams is expected to miss at least the first round with a knee injury.
- Brooklyn point guard/power forward Ben Simmons hopes to be ready by Game 4 of the Nets’ first round series.
- Heat forward P.J. Tucker will be ready for the playoffs despite a calf setback.
Hottest NBA Teams Entering the Playoffs – Wins and losses explain only so much, but point differential tend to be more predictive, no matter the sport. However, recency bias is something to be careful with.
While teams playing well recently could mean they have figured out their systems and roles, Milwaukee’s point different over the last two weeks of the regular season ranked 15th in the NBA. Still, as assembled by Cleaning the Glass, here are the hottest teams over the last two weeks according to point differential:
- Los Angeles Clippers +18.4 (Paul George had just returned)
- Dallas +14.4 (again Luka Doncic is reportedly out for Game 1)
- Boston +13.8
- Atlanta +10.3
- Miami +10.3
- Utah +7.8
- Philadelphia +5.7
Curated wisdom of crowds – Matthew Freedman obsesses over the NFL draft. As an example, he listens to podcasts at double or triple the speed to soak up information.
However, his primary tool for betting the NFL draft is his curated list of mock drafters with a track record of success. Last year on the Covering the Spread podcast, he divulged Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com as one of these sharp mock drafters.
You can find Freedman’s NFL draft information both on his recent appearance on The Football Analytics Show and his mock draft at FantasyPros.
Top wide receiver in the draft – JJ Zachariason doesn’t only look at analytics for fantasy football. While he runs the numbers in projecting how college players will perform in the NFL, he also seeks out different opinions.
While most episodes of The Late-Round Podcast are solo episodes, JJ did an interview with Alfredo Brown, a football analyst that primarily focuses on film study. Brown discussed the traits that make Jameson Williams of Alabama his top wide receiver in this draft, and how an injury in the national championship game shouldn’t hurt his draft stock.
Williams’s draft stock is rising according to the data on Grinding the Mocks (look under Prospect Trends).
Life as a Masters Champion – The world’s number-one golfer in Scottie Scheffler proved his ranking by running away with the green jacket last weekend. While his professional life may never be the same, life at home seems consistent, as Golf Digest pointed out:
Data driven betting information
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