Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, each Saturday morning at 10am Eastern.
Masters predictions – Going into Saturday, Scott Scheffler has a five stroke lead at -8. According to Data Golf, Scheffler has better than even odds to win (57.3%), a significant improvement from his 5.6% before the start of the Masters.
The pre-Masters favorite John Rahm is ten strokes off the lead at +2. By the predictive model of Data Golf (subscription required), his win probability has dropped from 8.3% before the Masters to 0.5%.
A humorous take on the Masters – If you close your eyes and imagine anything tranquil, Augusta National might come to mind. This all-encompassing peaceful presentation includes the theme song, whispered announcer commentary and immaculate scenery where every flower and blade of grass has such rich color and texture.
Most media types discuss the Masters with this hushed dignity. In contrast, this guy goes to the other extreme.
NFL draft betting – If you looked at a list of Matthew Freedman’s NFL draft bets from last season, he seems like a lunatic. How many different quarterbacks can you bet at #3?
However, Freedman makes the point that information changes at a rapid clip. A breaking story on the NFL draft can change the markets, and he made the decision to act on this information. While Mac Jones at #3 seemed like a lock at one point in 2021, he bet Trey Lance at #3 when the information changed.
Freedman wrote a comprehensive article on this NFL betting that is worth reading in its entirety.
NBA Play-In Tournament – Games determining the seventh and eighth seeds in the NBA playoffs tip off Tuesday and continue through Friday. Those finishing the regular season ninth and tenth must win twice to advance, while those seventh and eighth only need one victory.
While the Eastern Conference remains unsettled, Minnesota hosts the Los Angeles Clippers in the 7 vs. 8 while New Orleans takes on San Antonio in the 9 vs. 10 meeting. Even though the Spurs have the worst record of these four teams, they have have a positive point differential even as Dejounte Murray has missed time because of an illness.
College Basketball’s Transfer Portal – If you’re already looking at futures for next season, it’s important to project how transfers will perform in moving from one conference to another. This app uses Box Plus/Minus, a box score-based metric that estimates a player’s contribution, to make this prediction.
The team making the most noise is Arkansas, as they have acquired:
- Missouri’s Trevon Brazile
- Arizona State’s Jalen Graham
- Rhode Island twins Makhi and Makhel Mitchell
While Brazile and Makhi Mitchell have not been charted yet, projections are that Graham should have a Box Plus-Minus in the 60th percentile nationally, and Makhel Mitchell is projected at the 50th percentile. If nothing else, the Hogs have much-needed depth.
MLB predictions – At this early point in the season, The Power Rank’s MLB win probabilities rely on a preseason prior. This prior uses win total predictions from five computer models and two sharp sports books (Circa and FanDuel).
This wisdom of crowds model has a clear front runner in the Los Angeles Dodgers, while Baltimore seems in massive rebuilding mode. Win probabilities for all games get posted the night prior to the games.
Modeling vs modeling – On Sunday night of Bet Bash, there was free bar at the Legacy Club, a venue on the 60th floor of Circa with astounding views of Las Vegas. Kevin Davis had the best tweet from this party.
After Bet Bash, Twitter gushed with positive feedback about the four day event.
Data driven betting information
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
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