Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, appearing on Thursday this week because of March Madness.
Bracket advice and cheat sheet – Need some last minute advice for your pool? The Power Rank 2022 Bracket Advice starts with a cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your pool.
It looks like the cheat sheet yesterday expect that it’s based on my more accurate member college basketball rankings. While most of the choices are the same, there are a number of differences, including two Final Four teams.
The bracket advice also includes an analysis of the top contenders to win the tournament. The tournament tips at 12:15pm Eastern.
Tom Brady and NFL futures – Shock waves reverberated across football when Tom Brady unretired to play a 23rd overall season and third with Tampa Bay; or at least “almost” everyone reacted with surprise.
The Las Vegas Review-Journal said one sportsbook claimed a bettor had insider information about Brady’s return, so they bet on Tampa Bay futures just a few days before Brady’s announcement. South Point director Chris Andrews also said a sharp did the same thing and pounded down the Bucs’ odds.
Tampa Bay’s odds to win the Super Bowl went from 60-1 to +750 (the second-lowest ahead of Buffalo).
NCAA tournament game predictions – These predictions are based on ensemble approach that combines a number of strong predictors. All tournament games are considered neutral site games.
- St. Mary’s will beat Indiana by 0.9 points. This game features the 9th (St. Mary’s) and 20th (Indiana) best defensive teams by my adjusted points per possession.
- Alabama will beat Notre Dame by 3.4 points. Alabama has the 15th best offense by my adjusted points per possession despite shooting an awful 30.5% from three.
- Arkansas will beat Vermont by 7.2 points. Vermont won their three American East tournament games by an average of 36.7 points.
- Memphis will beat Boise State by 4.4 points. Memphis features freshman center Jalen Duren, a potential lottery pick in the next NBA draft.
Members of The Power Rank have access to these predictions as soon as possible.
College basketball injuries – This is based on the latest information from Covers.
- Arizona point guard Kerr Kriisa said he will play in the NCAA Tournament despite a scary-looking ankle injury during the Pac-12 Tournament.
- Illinois wing Jacob Grandison is questionable due to a shoulder injury.
- Michigan point guard Devante Jones is out against Colorado State because of a concussion.
- Michigan State point guard Tyson Walker is questionable with a sprained ankle.
- Ohio State’s Kyle Young, Zed Key and Meechie Johnson are all questionable. This is in addition to already being without Justice Sueing and Seth Towns.
- San Francisco center Yauhen Massalski will not play against Murray State.
Point guard play – The conventional wisdom suggests the importance of the player that has the ball the most. It’s even better when the point guard has NBA potential.
However, I didn’t find much evidence that NCAA championship caliber teams had elite talent at point guard over the past 4 tournaments. In addition, another study found that 60% of point guards on Elite Eight teams since 2010-19 were juniors or seniors. This is not an overwhelming majority of upperclassmen.
Point guard play is important but not critical. As discussed in an episode of Bracket Wisdom, this has allowed Arizona and Auburn to become title contenders with elite wing and post players.
NFL QB win shares – Russell Wilson is one of many marquee players who may have a new home. NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund used her win shares model for players to forecast which who would work best where, which you can read here.
Her list began with quarterback Jameis Winston who, if he stays with New Orleans, could make the Saints to win a weak NFC South a value play at +240.
Other NFL Moves – Ian Rapoport was the first to report Super Bowl champion pass rusher Von Miller earning a six-year, $120 million deal from Buffalo. It’s the largest contract of this free agency period as far as total value, annual value and guaranteed money ($53 million per spotrac.com).
Buffalo’s future to win the Super Bowl dropped from 7-1 to +650. Other notable moves include cornerback J.C. Jackson to the Los Angeles Chargers, receiver Christian Kirk to Jacksonville and outside linebacker Randy Gregory, who originally agreed to stay with Dallas before flipping to Denver.
Data driven betting information
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