These predictions come from my college football rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule based on my Ph.D. research.
While not as predictive as the member college football numbers, these predictions have performed well this season. Andrew Percival tracks the performance of a variety of college football predictors and found these free, public rankings perform well.
The games are ranked based on the quality of teams and closeness of the outcome. The tight games between the best teams will rise to the top.
1. Oklahoma State versus Notre Dame at a neutral site.
Notre Dame (7) will beat Oklahoma State (8) by 0.7 at a neutral site. Oklahoma State has a 48% chance of beating Notre Dame.
2. Georgia versus Michigan at a neutral site.
Georgia (1) will beat Michigan (3) by 4.1 at a neutral site. Michigan has a 38% chance of beating Georgia.
3. Baylor versus Mississippi at a neutral site.
Mississippi (10) will beat Baylor (13) by 0.4 at a neutral site. Baylor has a 49% chance of beating Mississippi.
4. Cincinnati versus Alabama at a neutral site.
Alabama (2) will beat Cincinnati (5) by 4.7 at a neutral site. Cincinnati has a 36% chance of beating Alabama.
5. Utah versus Ohio State at a neutral site.
Ohio State (4) will beat Utah (6) by 4.1 at a neutral site. Utah has a 38% chance of beating Ohio State.
6. Oregon versus Oklahoma at a neutral site.
Oklahoma (18) will beat Oregon (20) by 0.1 at a neutral site. Oregon has a 50% chance of beating Oklahoma.
7. Penn State versus Arkansas at a neutral site.
Penn State (11) will beat Arkansas (14) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Arkansas has a 46% chance of beating Penn State.
8. Clemson versus Iowa State at a neutral site.
Clemson (15) will beat Iowa State (19) by 0.8 at a neutral site. Iowa State has a 48% chance of beating Clemson.
9. Pittsburgh versus Michigan State at a neutral site.
Pittsburgh (12) will beat Michigan State (16) by 2.0 at a neutral site. Michigan State has a 44% chance of beating Pittsburgh.
10. UCLA versus North Carolina State at a neutral site.
North Carolina State (21) will beat UCLA (32) by 2.4 at a neutral site. UCLA has a 43% chance of beating North Carolina State.
11. Wisconsin versus Arizona State at a neutral site.
Wisconsin (24) will beat Arizona State (37) by 2.4 at a neutral site. Arizona State has a 43% chance of beating Wisconsin.
12. Houston versus Auburn at a neutral site.
Auburn (17) will beat Houston (35) by 3.0 at a neutral site. Houston has a 41% chance of beating Auburn.
13. Iowa versus Kentucky at a neutral site.
Kentucky (25) will beat Iowa (39) by 2.6 at a neutral site. Iowa has a 42% chance of beating Kentucky.
14. LSU versus Kansas State at a neutral site.
LSU (27) will beat Kansas State (42) by 2.1 at a neutral site. Kansas State has a 44% chance of beating LSU.
15. Tennessee versus Purdue at a neutral site.
Purdue (31) will beat Tennessee (44) by 1.8 at a neutral site. Tennessee has a 45% chance of beating Purdue.
16. Utah State versus Oregon State at a neutral site.
Oregon State (28) will beat Utah State (45) by 2.3 at a neutral site. Utah State has a 43% chance of beating Oregon State.
17. Wake Forest versus Texas A&M at a neutral site.
Texas A&M (9) will beat Wake Forest (36) by 5.8 at a neutral site. Wake Forest has a 33% chance of beating Texas A&M.
18. Western Kentucky versus Appalachian State at a neutral site.
Appalachian State (47) will beat Western Kentucky (52) by 0.4 at a neutral site. Western Kentucky has a 49% chance of beating Appalachian State.
19. UTSA versus San Diego State at a neutral site.
San Diego State (41) will beat UTSA (49) by 2.7 at a neutral site. UTSA has a 42% chance of beating San Diego State.
20. Washington State versus Miami (FL) at a neutral site.
Washington State (40) will beat Miami (FL) (54) by 3.5 at a neutral site. Miami (FL) has a 40% chance of beating Washington State.
21. Air Force versus Louisville at a neutral site.
Air Force (29) will beat Louisville (56) by 5.6 at a neutral site. Louisville has a 34% chance of beating Air Force.
22. West Virginia versus Minnesota at a neutral site.
Minnesota (33) will beat West Virginia (60) by 6.1 at a neutral site. West Virginia has a 32% chance of beating Minnesota.
23. SMU versus Virginia at a neutral site.
SMU (51) will beat Virginia (65) by 3.6 at a neutral site. Virginia has a 39% chance of beating SMU.
24. North Carolina versus South Carolina at a neutral site.
North Carolina (48) will beat South Carolina (68) by 4.2 at a neutral site. South Carolina has a 38% chance of beating North Carolina.
25. Mississippi State versus Texas Tech at a neutral site.
Mississippi State (26) will beat Texas Tech (62) by 8.1 at a neutral site. Texas Tech has a 27% chance of beating Mississippi State.
26. Memphis versus Hawaii at a neutral site.
Memphis (73) will beat Hawaii (83) by 1.9 at a neutral site. Hawaii has a 44% chance of beating Memphis.
27. Louisiana versus Marshall at a neutral site.
Louisiana (53) will beat Marshall (75) by 5.2 at a neutral site. Marshall has a 35% chance of beating Louisiana.
28. Boston College versus East Carolina at a neutral site.
East Carolina (70) will beat Boston College (84) by 2.3 at a neutral site. Boston College has a 43% chance of beating East Carolina.
29. UCF versus Florida at a neutral site.
Florida (38) will beat UCF (72) by 8.2 at a neutral site. UCF has a 27% chance of beating Florida.
30. Western Michigan versus Nevada at a neutral site.
Nevada (30) will beat Western Michigan (74) by 9.1 at a neutral site. Western Michigan has a 25% chance of beating Nevada.
31. Georgia State versus Ball State at a neutral site.
Ball State (91) will beat Georgia State (92) by 0.1 at a neutral site. Georgia State has a 50% chance of beating Ball State.
32. Missouri versus Army at a neutral site.
Army (50) will beat Missouri (82) by 6.6 at a neutral site. Missouri has a 31% chance of beating Army.
33. UAB versus Brigham Young at a neutral site.
Brigham Young (22) will beat UAB (78) by 11.7 at a neutral site. UAB has a 20% chance of beating Brigham Young.
34. Central Michigan versus Boise State at a neutral site.
Boise State (23) will beat Central Michigan (79) by 11.9 at a neutral site. Central Michigan has a 19% chance of beating Boise State.
35. Maryland versus Virginia Tech at a neutral site.
Virginia Tech (64) will beat Maryland (90) by 5.5 at a neutral site. Maryland has a 34% chance of beating Virginia Tech.
36. Northern Illinois versus Coastal Carolina at a neutral site.
Coastal Carolina (59) will beat Northern Illinois (93) by 7.3 at a neutral site. Northern Illinois has a 29% chance of beating Coastal Carolina.
37. Eastern Michigan versus Liberty at a neutral site.
Liberty (69) will beat Eastern Michigan (96) by 5.7 at a neutral site. Eastern Michigan has a 34% chance of beating Liberty.
38. North Texas versus Miami (OH) at a neutral site.
Miami (OH) (80) will beat North Texas (102) by 6.2 at a neutral site. North Texas has a 32% chance of beating Miami (OH).
39. Middle Tennessee versus Toledo at a neutral site.
Toledo (55) will beat Middle Tennessee (104) by 12.1 at a neutral site. Middle Tennessee has a 19% chance of beating Toledo.
40. Kent State versus Wyoming at a neutral site.
Wyoming (71) will beat Kent State (107) by 10.8 at a neutral site. Kent State has a 21% chance of beating Wyoming.
41. Old Dominion versus Tulsa at a neutral site.
Tulsa (58) will beat Old Dominion (106) by 13.3 at a neutral site. Old Dominion has a 17% chance of beating Tulsa.
42. UTEP versus Fresno State at a neutral site.
Fresno State (43) will beat UTEP (109) by 18.6 at a neutral site. UTEP has a 10% chance of beating Fresno State.
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