THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

New England at Buffalo, NFL Week 13, 2021

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

In college football, you can play momentum. If you play momentum in the NFL, you’ll get killed over the long course.

Chris Andrews, director of the South Point sportsbook on my podcast

In college football, you can’t set the right spread for Michigan this season without following momentum and their strong play. Clemson is an example of a team in 2021 in which momentum worked in the opposite direction.

However, this doesn’t work in the NFL.

New England has momentum. Bill Belichick and Mac Jones have won 6 games in a row by an average of 24.7 points. This type of run is unsustainable for even the NFL’s most dominant teams, and New England’s run has been fueled by the good fortune of a +13 turnover margin.

However, there is also signal here. After week 5, New England’s pass offense ranked 28th in my adjusted success rate. Now, New England has risen to 10th. In particular, my metrics like the 52.9% passing success rate against a strong Tennessee defense (4th) last week.

New England’s defense has been good as well, as the Patriots rank 8th in my adjusted success rate.

However, on Monday night, New England travels to Buffalo, a team I consider a primary Super Bowl contender.

Buffalo’s offense hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations set in 2020. In addition, Josh Allen couldn’t throw the ball into the ocean against Indianapolis. Despite these bumps, Buffalo ranks a respectable 8th in my pass offense rankings.

Buffalo’s defense has covered up for the offense. This unit is tops in the NFL whether you look at my adjusted passing success rate or PFF coverage grades. A season ending injury to CB Tre’Davious White is a huge blow, but the rest of the defense has been stellar.

In the future, we may look back upon today as the end of Buffalo’s 15 month run atop the AFC East. The Bills won the division in 2020 and made it to the AFC championship game while New England struggled to a 7-9 record. But that ended as future Hall of Fame QB Mac Jones played his first game against division rival Buffalo.

Maybe.

However, as of right now, all my metrics favor Buffalo to win by a considerable margin.

  • Preseason – Buffalo by 5.7 points.
  • Market model that takes closing spreads and adjusts for opponent – Buffalo by 6.3 points.
  • Data from the current season (success rate, yards per pass attempt, points) – Buffalo by 4.3 points.

If you shun momentum and follow these metrics, this suggests value in Buffalo -2.5.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter, a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The predictions are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: National Football League, The Power Rank Newsletter

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game
  • Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Conference Championships
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 21, 2023
  • Dallas at San Francisco, NFL Divisional Playoffs

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member