Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Betting college basketball – Professional sports bettor Mike Craig made an appearance on The Football Analytics Show, and the section on college basketball might surprise you.
At about 50 minute mark of the interview, Mike talks about how he thinks Robert Morris and Green Bay will play slower than expected this past Thursday night. While the analytics site kenpom.com predicted a total of 138 points, the market agreed with Mike and opened at 135.5.
The market closed at 134.5, and the game went under as Green Bay beat Robert Morris 70-58 (128 total points). It’s a subjective approach for a usually quantitative bettor.
Bills to Miss the Playoffs??? – All of us at the Power Rank like the Bills -2.5 against the Patriots Monday night.
However, if you believe New England will not only win outright Monday night but sweep the season series against Buffalo, there’s value in betting the Bills to miss the playoffs, currently listed at +740 on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
As I explain on the BetQL Daily show, Buffalo is currently the 6th seed in the AFC. They are one game ahead of the 7-seed and those currently on the outside because of tiebreakers.
Injuries – These are double checked with the ESPN NFL injuries page.
- Arizona QB Kyler Murray was limited all week due to an ankle. He is questionable at Chicago.
- Chicago QB Justin Fields is dealing with a rib injury, and Andy Dalton will start against Arizona.
- Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts was limited this week due to an ankle injury. He is listed as questionable, and he split first-team reps with Gardner Minshew.
- Carolina QB Sam Darnold has started throwing and will be evaluated after their bye this week.
- Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is still dealing with a toe issue, saying while he’s avoiding surgery, even if he had it, it shouldn’t affect his playing time.
- New York Giants QB Daniel Jones is out because of a neck injury. Mike Glennon will start against Miami.
Win tickets to Cardinals at Cowboys – The Power Rank is a partner of The Ultimate Tailgating Sweepstakes, and these sweepstakes could not have picked a better game.
The Cardinals lead the NFC with a 9-2 record, and they visit the Cowboys on January 2nd, the second to last week of the regular season. The Cowboys surged to 8-4 with a win over New Orleans Thursday night.
For details about the prize and how to enter, check out The Ultimate Tailgating Sweepstakes.
Cincinnati chaos scenario – The Power Rank gives Cincinnati a 78.3% chance to beat Houston in the AAC Championship game as a 10.7 point favorite. However, this doesn’t secure their spot in the playoff.
Assuming Cincinnati wins, they want to avoid the scenario in which Alabama, Michigan and Oklahoma State all win. This could result in a college football playoff with those three teams and Georgia.
By The Power Rank’s metrics, there is a 19.7% chance Alabama, Michigan and Oklahoma State all win.
SEC Championship – Picking Georgia vs Alabama against the spread and straight-up features some philosophical arguments as well as matchup analysis.
Perhaps most notable is who has the quarterback advantage: the Bulldogs’ Stetson Bennett or the Tide’s Bryce Young? Bennett has the advantage in average predicted points added per play but I made the argument on a Georgia podcast that Alabama has asked Bryce Young to do much more than Bennett. After all, Bennett has not attempted more than 29 passes in a game this season, Young has surpassed that mark seven times this season.
If the game is close or Bama takes the lead, can Bennett keep up when passing becomes more predictable?
Changing Schools, Changing Accents – No year has had more coaching upheaval in college football than this one. One of the bigger headlines was Brian Kelly bolting Notre Dame for LSU.
At a basketball game, Kelly seemed to have embraced one of Louisiana’s many accents all too readily (as a Louisiana native, the state has many accents beyond just “the Cajun one”). Kelly’s sudden change inspired this hilarious sketch comedy by Joey Mulinaro of Barstool.
Data driven betting information
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