THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • World Soccer/Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Ohio State at Michigan, 2021

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Ohio State didn’t have the greatest start to the 2021 season. Expectations for this program start and end with a national championship, but an early home loss to Oregon prompted many questions:

  • The defense? This unit continued a downward slide that started in 2020.
  • Was CJ Stroud the answer at QB?

That seems like ages ago, as Ohio State has stormed through the Big Ten with a string of impressive wins.

The strength of this team is at wide receiver. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson came into the season as sure fire NFL first round draft picks, and neither has disappointed.

However, neither Olave nor Wilson might be the best receiver on the team. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the team with 69 catches for 1132 yards. He has a higher yards per route (4.2) than Olave (2.6) and Wilson (3.5).

Michigan doesn’t have the answer for these receivers in the secondary. CB Gemon Green dressed against Maryland, and he should be available against Ohio State, which will help.

This is not an indictment of Michigan’s defense. Georgia’s defense might not have the answers against Ohio State. Hell, the Detroit Lions with their NFL worst coverage grade by PFF might not have the answers against Ohio State.

To slow down Ohio State’s top ranked offense by my adjusted success rate, two thing could happen:

  • Ohio State could look sluggish like they did against Nebraska.
  • Michigan edge rushers Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojabo could have huge games. Both players cracked the top 10 in a recent ESPN+ NFL mock draft ahead of Olave and Wilson.

Michigan’s offense is a work in progress. Their top target against Ohio State might be Andrel Anthony, a player who caught his first pass in their eighth game against Michigan State. In my passing success rate, Michigan ranks 55th for the season.

Michigan’s run game ranks 31st in my adjusted success rate. They will get RB Blake Corum back, their most explosive player. Still, Michigan will find it difficult against an Ohio State defense that has surged to 28th in adjusted success rate after their rough start.

My numbers like Ohio State by 5.3 points in Ann Arbor. Even though the markets have favored Michigan more than my numbers in most games this season, Ohio State is currently a 7.5 or 8.5 point favorite. I don’t see any value in this game because of Ohio State’s offense.

An interesting note: Circa has taken a stand in this game by making Ohio State a 6.5 point favorite as of Friday morning. I’d love to see the sharp betting Michigan give a speech in downtown Ann Arbor on the value on Michigan. You could smell the disbelief in Columbus.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter, a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The predictions are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: College Football, The Power Rank Newsletter

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • 5-Nugget Saturday, March 25, 2023
  • Alabama’s championship probability
  • Members: Sweet Sixteen futures
  • 5-Nugget Saturday, March 18, 2023
  • Members: NCAA tournament prop bets

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • World Soccer/Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member