Your weekly digest of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday morning at 10am Eastern.
Sharp money on Michigan vs Penn State – Chris Andrews, bookmaker at the South Point Sportsbook, described the evolution of this spread from preseason to earlier this week. After Penn State’s win over Maryland, books opened with the Nittany Lions as home favorites.
Sharp bettors took Michigan, and now the road team is favored in this critical Big Ten game. Two hours before kickoff at noon Eastern time, some books favor Michigan by as many as 2 points.
If you have any curiosity about betting, you must follow Chris Andrews and absorb his information on sharp vs public money in college football week 11.
Raising the Flags – A recent New York Times article looked at why so many NFL underdogs have covered or won outright in the last few weeks. While these trends can happen naturally, one reason posed involved penalties, that a penalty disparity can often be too much to overcome for a favorite.
This website tracks penalties for all NFL teams. The net count column may be the most informative, tracking which teams benefit the most and which suffer the greatest setbacks.
For this week’s matchups that involve the biggest disparities between the two teams, New England is +23 over Cleveland, Atlanta is +22 over Dallas and Washington is +22 over Tampa Bay.
Injuries – These were double checked with ESPN’s NFL injuries page.
- Arizona QB Kyler Murray is a game-time decision with a sprained ankle. The Cardinals are still a 9 point favorite against Carolina at Circa on Sunday morning.
- Carolina QB Sam Darnold is out. The Panthers signed Cam Newton but P.J. Walker will start.
- Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz was limited at practice Thursday due to a non-COVID illness. He is expected to play, even if his wife gives birth to his second child.
- Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence was limited at practice due to an ankle injury but is expected to play.
- Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is out after being placed on the COVID-19 list.
- Tampa Bay WR Antonio Brown will not play Sunday because of an ankle injury, neither will TE Rob Gronkowski.
- New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara will not play Sunday with an MCL sprain, which is significant given how much the Saints use him in the passing game.
- New York Jets will start Mike White at quarterback as they ease Zach Wilson back from his PCL strain.
- Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei has a sprained knee, but he will supposedly play against Connecticut, a game in which Clemson is favored by 41 points.
- Iowa QB Spencer Petras will not play against Minnesota.
The Bookmaker Perspective – Tony Miller, bookmaker at the Golden Nugget, talked all things betting on The Football Analytics Show podcast.
After telling some great stories about Dean Martin and Frank Sinatra, Tony described how he updates his power ratings, the value of a single player and two NFL sides he likes which happen to agree with The Power Rank’s numbers.
Tony’s appearance on The Football Analytics Show provides a unique perspective on football betting.
College Basketball Predictions – These numbers are based on The Power Rank’s analytics.
- Gonzaga will beat Texas by 9.6 points at home. Freshman Chet Holmgren, the skinny seven footer, plays his second game after 14 points and 7 blocks in his debut against Dixie State.
- Michigan will beat Prairie View A&M by 22.8 points in Washington D.C. Sophomore Hunter Dickinson had 27 points in his opener against Buffalo.
- California Baptist will beat Mississippi Valley State by 28.6 points at home. It might be a long season for the worst team in college basketball according to kenpom.com.
Members of The Power Rank get access to all predictions for college basketball, college football and the NFL.
Beware of the Teaser – Many bettors disintegrated in agony Thursday night when Baltimore didn’t even cover the 1.5-point teaser leg, losing outright to the 2-7 Miami Dolphins. While it is only one game, teasing a large favorite may not have the value it once seemed with the number of upsets this season.
There are not many teasable games this week for favorites, though Pittsburgh teased down to -2.5 may be tempting against the winless Lions. However, it is rare for a team to finish a regular season winless, and there is a chance for significant rain in Pittsburgh.
OBJ to Hollywood – WR Odell Beckham, Jr. is joining the Los Angeles Rams. Many are skeptical of how he might fit into an already successful offense, as the Rams pass offense ranks 5th in The Power Rank’s adjusted passing success rate. In addition, OBJ has had to work through a torn ACL in 2020 and had 17 catches in six games for Cleveland before being released.
But, Next Gen Stats explained why this acquisition might work. Matthew Stafford has been efficient throwing to wide-aligned receivers beyond 10 air yards. OBJ has aligned wide 84% of the time this year. The Rams are banking he will look more like when he was with the Giants than the Browns.
Data driven betting information
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”