THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

5 insights from NFL passing success rate

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

In 2020, Buffalo lost to Kansas City in week 6. QB Josh Allen didn’t have the greatest game, as he completed 14 of 27 passes.

This game seemed like a confirmation of his lack of accuracy. The analytics community has doubted Allen since his last year at Wyoming in college football.

However, the advanced metrics told a different story. Consider passing success rate. For an offense, success on a play means gaining the following fraction of yards towards the next first down:

  • 50% on first down
  • 70% on second down
  • 100% on third and fourth down

After my schedule adjustments, Buffalo’s pass offense ranked 7th in success rate after the Kansas City game. Seventh.

Why should you trust passing success rate?

Over the past 10 seasons, I looked at the correlation from early to late season for a variety of passing metrics. Passing success rate by the above definition had an R-squared value of 0.331, the highest I found. For comparison, passing EPA per play had an R-squared value of 0.252.

Passing success rate is predictive, and it didn’t fail for Buffalo last season. The Bills finished the season 3rd in my adjusted passing success rate and made it to the AFC championship game.

After week 7 in 2021, let’s look at some insights from passing success rate. All ranks refer to my passing success adjusted for opponent, which are available to members of The Power Rank.

Buffalo – Allen, Diggs and company still boast a strong pass offense, as they rank 10th. As I discussed this preseason, OC Brian Daboll makes life easier for Allen with his play calling.

Buffalo gets even more of a nod as a Super Bowl contender not because of Kansas City’s troubles but because of their defense. The pass defense ranks 2nd.

Indianapolis – Carson Wentz’s offense seems fine, as they average 24.1 points per game, 15th best in the NFL. However, the pass offense ranks dead last in my pass rankings.

The pass offense has shown signs of life, as Wentz’s offense had a 52.6% success rate against Baltimore. However, he can’t pick on Anthony Averett every game. The Colts have had a 39.8% success rate for the season compared to the NFL average of 45.6%.

Green Bay – The Packers have had success on 46.8% of pass plays this season, 11th best in the NFL through Thursday night’s game. However, they have faced a strong set of pass defense by my numbers, units that include San Francisco (1st), Cincinnati (4th), Arizona (6th) and Chicago (9th).

My schedule adjustments move the Packers pass offense up to 6th.

Minnesota – The offense doesn’t look that great in terms of points per game, as the Vikings rank 14th in this category. However, you expect better from an offense with the talents of WRs Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Minnesota ranks a much healthier 7th in my pass offense rankings. They face Dallas on Sunday, and my numbers make the Vikings the favorite in this game.

Tennessee – Ryan Tannehill’s offense has not looked great this season, as they rank 21st by my numbers. Poor performances against the weak pass defenses of the New York Jets (39.3%) and Jacksonville (40.0%) hurt their rank.

However, this rank is probably low because of injuries. WR Julio Jones didn’t play against the Jets and Jags, and WR A.J. Brown also missed the Jets game. Both receivers are back from injury, and my numbers favor Tennessee by a point at Indianapolis.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter, a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The predictions are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: National Football League, The Power Rank Newsletter

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game
  • Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Conference Championships

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member