Your weekly digest of sports betting tips and news, curated from the sharpest minds in the industry. Every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Player-Based NFL Models – Rob Pizzola made an appearance on The Football Analytics Show podcast with Ed Feng. While he analyzed various NFL teams like the Raiders and Chargers, the conversation about predictive models stood out.
Rob mostly uses player based models now, and he builds these based on statistics like yards and pressures instead of metrics with a layer of subjectivity, like PFF grades and Madden ratings. He has back tested the latter type of metrics and didn’t like the results.
- Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has been playing with torn cartilage in his left shoulder, according to a source. Mayfield is not listed on the injury report and is expected to play against the Chargers.
- Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater has a concussion but fully participated in Friday’s practice. He is listed as questionable; Drew Lock is available if Bridgewater cannot go.
- San Francisco QB Jimmy Garappolo will not play against Arizona because of a calf injury. Rookie Trey Lance will make his first start.
- Cincinnati CB Chidobe Awuzie will play against Green Bay, who will not have CB Jaire Alexander.
- Tennessee WR A.J. Brown is still recovering from a hamstring injury but should be available. Julio Jones, however, is listed as out as he was not spotted at practice on Friday.
- Tampa Bay CB Carlton Davis is on IR with a quad strain, further compounding the injuries the Buccaneers are experiencing in their secondary. However, CB Jamel Dean will be available after missing last week’s game.
- Georgia QB JT Daniels is not expected to play Saturday against Auburn with a lat injury. Stetson Bennett will start, despite what Head Coach Kirby Smart called a knee laceration that isn’t bothersome.
A Noticeable Change – John Sheeran, the Director of Trading at FanDuel Sportsbook, made an appearance on the Covering the Spread podcast this week. As usual, he offered the bookmaker perspective on a number of NFL games for Week 5.
This time, John talked about the specific number that FanDuel’s model gave for a game. For example, the model has Kansas City by 3.3 points over Buffalo on Sunday night, the reason that FanDuel moved to Kansas City -3 this week.
In previous appearances, John never mentioned a single number on a game. Decisions seemed to have been made based on the collective opinion of traders.
State of the Industry – As sports betting expands, so have the media outlets offering advice. The “barrier to entry” is low with podcasts, blogs, etc. It’s important for all bettors to be diligent about taking advice.
For instance, as Eric Eager and George Chahrouri explained in an episode of the PFF Forecast podcast, a lot of touts will suggest teasing games through the number zero. It’s a terrible strategy because very few NFL games end in a tie. So, don’t do it and thus, become more cynical of anyone who offers such advice.
Coaching Matters – During Edward Egros’ weekly appearance on BetQL daily, he discussed how he thinks the Bills/Chiefs game will play out. In betting games, one thing he and several others have discussed is how much weight to place on coaching acumen.
If a coach tends to show good decision-making during games, how many points is that worth? If a coach gets conservative on fourth down, how do you account for that? It’s not necessarily a concrete idea, but it’s worth the discussion.
Ben Baldwin has a chart showing which coaches give up the most win probability by kicking instead of going for it on 4th down.
London Calling – The first game in London since the pandemic is happening early Sunday morning (6:30a.m. for Edward, so please keep him in your thoughts) between the Jets and Falcons at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The total is 45.5 per FanDuel Sportsbook. As Drew Dinsick said on the Deep Dive podcast, “if the game in Wembley is played, bet the over, you’ll get paid.” But, as he followed up quickly, this game is not in Wembley. The under may be the better play here.
SEC Shorts – Alabama and Georgia get called into the principal’s office for a stern conversation. However, the third attendee at the end really makes this video. SEC Shorts provides a humorous look at college football down south.