Cincinnati scored on all four of their second half possessions against Jacksonville last week. The first three scores were touchdowns, and the last drive could have been a fourth. However, a field goal sufficed to win the game for Cincinnati.
After a feeble first half, Cincinnati and QB Joe Burrow had an excellent offensive second half. It was enough to make Urban Meyer run and find the nearest lap dance.
Cincinnati has shown promise in 2021. The pass offense ranks 12th in my adjusted success rate. Burrow had an awful week 2 against Chicago with three interceptions but has otherwise excelled in 2021.
Cincinnati’s defense didn’t project that well for me this preseason, but the pass defense ranks a respectable 14th in adjusted success rate. However, they did have their worst performance against Jacksonville. In this game, they didn’t have top CB Chidobe Awuzie, a player listed as questionable against Green Bay.
While Cincinnati might be rising, Green Bay might be headed in the other direction.
On offense, Green Bay ranks 9th in my adjusted passing success rate. Given their no show in the opener against New Orleans, this is a solid result.
The problem is the defense. They rank 20th in my pass defense numbers by adjusted success rate. In addition, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, Jaire Alexander, has a shoulder injury that might require surgery. He is listed as questionable Sunday against Cincinnati.
In addition, CB Kevin King has not played the last 2 games for Green Bay and is listed as questionable.
My numbers, which blend preseason metrics with schedule adjusted data from the current season, like Green Bay by 4.7 points. While this suggests value in Green Bay -3, the injury situation has prevented me from betting this game yet.
We will update this injury situation in 7-Nugget Saturday, this newsletter’s weekly round up of sports betting tips and news.
It wasn’t my intent to leave you hanging on a game. For at least one newsletter per week, I try to write up a game that I have bet and still has value. It doesn’t matter how the bets have gone the past few weeks.
However, this week has been a challenge. The value in Minnesota -7.5 vs Detroit and Penn State +2.5 at Iowa evaporated as I wrote up those games for members. At least I checked that Kansas City -2.5 moved before I wrote this newsletter.
I’ll adjust next week and provide a better service.
Football betting with a PhD edge
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