Sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Tampa Bay’s defense – Nothing sets me off more than a misleading statement, and a recent tweet claimed the Buccaneers had the worst pass defense in the history of the sport through three weeks because of how many yards they allowed.
In contrast, @greerreNFL showed how the opposing QB explains more of defensive performance than previous performance of the defense.
So far, Tampa Bay has seen Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford. According to The Power Rank, they have the 25th worst passing success rate allowed, but get bumped up to 11th after schedule adjustments.
The opposition get easier, as Tampa Bay will face Mac Jones, the starter for the Dolphins, Jalen Hurts and the trio of mediocrity presented by the Bears.
Injuries – These were checked against ESPN’s NFL injuries page and USA Today for college football.
- Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable against Denver but did return to practice Friday.
- NY Giant WRs Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are out with hamstring injuries against New Orleans.
- Tennessee WRs Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are out with hamstring injuries against the New York Jets.
- Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is questionable against Georgia after leaving the last game with a bruised knee.
- Notre Dame QB Jack Coan left last game with an injury but is expected to be active against Cincinnati.
- Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud missed last game with a shoulder injury but is expected to be active against Rutgers.
Marquise Brown – At Establish the Run, Evan Silva noted that Brown dropped three potential touchdown passes against Detroit last week. The video is jaw dropping.
However, there’s good news: he doesn’t lead the league in total drops (Najee Harris and Deebo Samuel). He remains Lamar Jackson’s favorite receiver as the team leader in targets (23), receptions (15), yards (235) and touchdowns (2), so he hasn’t entirely dropped the ball.
Baltimore will need a better version of Brown this week as they face a tough Denver secondary. The Broncos pass defense ranks 6th in The Power Rank’s passing success rate adjusted for schedule.
You can get 10% discount on a subscription to Establish the Run with the code TPR.
Rough Rookies – As Josh Hermsmeyer pointed out on FiveThirtyEight, the overall start for all rookie quarterbacks has been historically bad. The only win anyone of them has registered is Mac Jones… against another rookie in Zach Wilson.
That article posted Thursday morning. Later that evening, rookie Trevor Lawrence of Jacksonville covered and nearly won outright against Cincinnati. Per FanDuel Sportsbook, all of these first-year gunslingers are at least six-point underdogs except the Bears’ Justin Fields who is a three-point favorite (and he may not start if Andy Dalton is healthy enough).
Michigan’s Adjusted Metrics – In The Power Rank’s adjusted success rate, Michigan’s offense ranks 21st. They didn’t have the best offensive game against Rutgers last week, but the schedule adjustments account for the strong performance of Rutger’s defense (7th by adjusted success rate).
On defense, Michigan ranks 15th in adjusted success rate, a pleasant surprise for a unit that struggled last season. The schedule adjustments give Michigan a boost for shutting down Western Michigan, a team whose offense ranks 16th in adjusted success rate.
Don Best has sold – The expensive real time line service has a new owner. Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. is purchasing OpenBet for $1.2 billion to combine their services with IMG Arena, a sports content company.
One conclusion one can make: sports betting is becoming even more mainstream.
Who Loves a Good Astronomical Total?? – Anyone remotely paying attention to college football should be able to answer the question: “Which game has the highest total this weekend?”
Ole Miss at Alabama is boasting a total of 80.5. If that number seems insane, Texas Tech vs Baylor had a total of 90.5 in 2015 per ESPN Stats & Information. The over hit then, but The Power Rank’s numbers are not as confident this latest one will too (prediction of 78.3 points for Ole Miss at Alabama).
Data driven betting information
These nuggets were part of The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
Leave a Reply