You need the best information to bet on football. The markets are sharp, and you desire that extra edge.
While The Power Rank provides predictions and analytics for NFL games, Establish the Run takes the content approach in bringing you the best NFL information. Each week, Evan Silva and Adam Levitan put in the hard work so you don’t have to.
If you play fantasy sports, this knowledge is a must. However, the information also applies to betting as well.
Let’s check out 3 insights from Establish the Run for NFL week 3.
Lions pass defense
I’ve been talking about the Lion’s pass defense, pointing out how their weak secondary has gotten worse due to injuries. However, outside coverage against wide receivers is not the only area of weakness.
In writing about Ravens at Lions, Silva points out that tight ends George Kittle (San Francisco) and Robert Tonyan (Green Bay) have combined for 7 receptions, 130 yards and 1 touchdown (They use the shorthand 7/130/1 to denote this information).
Kittle and Tonyan are two of the best tight ends in the NFL. However, Baltimore’s Mark Andrews is also an elite player, as he had 2.0 yards per route in 2020, 4th best among tight ends.
While Detroit’s cornerback situation looks awful, they also do not defend the pass well against tight ends. This supports the idea of backing Baltimore -7.5 on the road.
Joe Burrow
Each week, Adam Levitan posts an article on player prop bets that he likes. Even though he has started the 2021 season with a 18-6 record, he writes the article to help you develop your own process.
For week 3, he likes Joe Burrow under 35.5 pass attempts. He notes that Cincinnati does not throw often on neutral game scripts.
Ben Baldwin’s site rbsdm.com has Cincinnati as the third lowest pass rate. While Buffalo leads the NFL by throwing on almost 70% of these plays, Cincinnati is below 45%.
Burrow also threw 3 interceptions last week against Chicago. His 1.2% interception rate from his rookie year was unsustainable.
Los Angeles Rams offense
Tampa Bay is off to a 2-0 start in their campaign to win two straight Super Bowls. However, injuries might derail their stout defense.
Slot cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is hurt, and the Bucs defense has gotten torched on interior routes. Silva doesn’t provide any data on this, but he most likely makes this statement from watching Bucs games after Murphy-Bunting got hurt against Dallas in the opener.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford has found a rapport with slot receiver Cooper Kupp (271 yards on 21 targets in 2021). My numbers like Rams by 1.3 points, and this matchup could tip the game towards the Rams.
The best in football content
Evan Silva and Adam Levitan have established themselves as two of the foremost football experts (not just fantasy). I’ve had both on my podcast, and I was blown away by their knowledge.
They display the fruits of their labor at Establish the Run (the name is a joke, as they do not believe that NFL teams should do this). Among other content, subscribers get the following:
- Evan Silva’s matchup column. The week 3 edition clocks in at over 9,000 words, which does not include the Thursday or Monday night games.
- Adam Levitan’s prop bet column. Through week 2, his bets are off to an 18-6 start.
- Establish the Show, a Friday live-stream that goes through the entire Sunday slate.
You can grab a 10% discount with the code TPR. To check out Establish the Run, click here.
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