The 400 meter hurdles has caught fire in 2021 as both world records have been broken.
Sydney McLaughlin broke the women’s world record at the US Olympic trials this June. With the injury troubles to rival Dalilah Muhammad, McLaughlin heads into the Olympics as the deserving favorite.
Norwegian Karsten Warholm broke the men’s world record by running 46.70 on home turf in Oslo. While he should also be the favorite in Toyko, he has more competition than McLaughlin for gold.
American Rai Benjamin has also been spectacular this season. At the US Olympic trials, he ran 46.83 for the 400m hurdles to come within 0.05 seconds of the world record. This would be the year’s fastest time if Warholm had not broken the world record 5 days later.
Benjamin and Warholm have run against each other twice, both in 2019. In their first meeting, Warholm held off a hard charging Benjamin in Zurich to win by 0.08 seconds.
Later that season, Warholm won the world championship in Qatar with a more healthy 0.24 second margin. However, Benjamin had sustained an injury before that race.
Since the beginning of 2019, here are the average 400m hurdle times for both men (excludes preliminary rounds in championship meets):
- Karsten Warholm: 47.27 seconds.
- Rai Benjamin: 47.31 seconds.
Warholm should be the favorite to win Olympic gold in the 400m hurdles, but his margin over Benjamin is razor thin.
DraftKings has Warholm at -250 (71.4% break even probability) and Benjamin at +175 (36.4%). The value is on Benjamin.
Data driven betting information. That’s been the tag line since a revamping of this email newsletter this year.
And while I’ve provided some “data” here, it’s not up to the usual standards. There is no predictive model, my own or from some other trusted source. There isn’t even a regression to give a win probability based on a difference of 0.04 seconds in the 400m hurdles.
I fear you might look at this data driven betting information the way a pro bettor views Stephen A Smith.
But even if this information isn’t as sharp as usual, it may enhance your enjoyment of a track final you should not miss (Monday, August 2nd at 11:20pm Eastern).
Data driven betting information
This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:
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