THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • World Soccer/Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Lakers series win probability down 3-2 to the Suns

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

The Suns vs Lakers series was fascinating from the beginning. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers were the pre-playoff favorite out of the Western conference as the 7 seed.

When Suns veteran Chris Paul got hurt and couldn’t play in game 2, it seemed all but assured the Lakers would advance. Now, Paul has returned, and Anthony Davis didn’t play in game 5 due to a groin injury.

In an NBA playoff series with no injuries, the spread usually swings back and forth based on home court. For example, the Knicks have been about a 1.5 point favorite at home but a 4.5 point underdog at Atlanta.

There is no regularity in this series. Let’s go through the games.

  • Game 1. Suns -2.5. Both teams were healthy, so this might be the best pure estimate of team strength given the Suns home court. (Suns win by 9)
  • Game 2. Lakers -2. Suns didn’t have Chris Paul and were down 1-0 heading into this game. (Lakers win by 7)
  • Game 3. Lakers -6.5. The Lakers had home court in game 3, but Chris Paul came back. (Lakers win by 14)
  • Game 4. Lakers -6.5. Anthony Davis gets hurt during the game. (Suns win by 8)
  • Game 5. Suns -4.5. Lakers didn’t have Anthony Davis on Suns home court (Suns win by 30)
  • Game 6. Lakers -2. Morning of the game on Thursday.

The spread has stumbled around more than Ernest Hemingway after hitting the bars in Cuba.

In my last correspondence, I argued that home court should be 3 points. While the markets have confirmed this in the Denver vs Portland and Atlanta vs New York series, it has been more complicated in the Suns vs Lakers series.

The difference in the markets between Game 1 versus Game 3 was 9 points, which should be twice home advantage. This implies a whopping 4.5 points for home advantage. Note that the injury to Chris Paul might have impacted the spread in Game 3; Paul played but not at full strength.

Based on the spread in Game 1 and 3, the Lakers are 2 points better than the Suns on a neutral court. I have code that translates this edge into a series win probability. With a 3-2 lead, the Suns have a 69% series win probability. This is a good estimate with a healthy Anthony Davis.

If Anthony Davis can’t play, we can estimate team strength by taking the difference in spreads between Game 5 and 6. This implies the Suns are better by 1 point. Anthony Davis is worth 3 points, and his absence raises the series win probability of the Suns to 79%.

FanDuel has the Suns at -290 to win the series, which implies a break even probability of 74%. This seems reasonable given the uncertainty around the health of Davis.

Data driven betting information

This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

While this information focuses on American football from August to February, off season topics include golf and basketball. To get this information, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: NBA

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • 5-Nugget Saturday, March 25, 2023
  • Alabama’s championship probability
  • Members: Sweet Sixteen futures
  • 5-Nugget Saturday, March 18, 2023
  • Members: NCAA tournament prop bets

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • World Soccer/Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member