Podcast: Aaron Schatz on predicting the NFL in 2019

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders. Each year, he and his team put out the Football Outsiders Almanac, an indispensable resource for my NFL preparation.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • the most interesting frontier in football analytics (2:55)
  • the defensive statistic that is least stable from season to season (5:34)
  • the surprising fact about play action (7:53)
  • the team that will be Jacksonville 2.0 in 2019 (19:36)
  • the team from the NFC North that might surprise you (24:15)

Aaron also discusses Cleveland, Green Bay and Seattle in our wide ranging discussion.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.


  1. Steve Patterson says

    I read the article on the study about first down is everything and it confirmed my own sense that teams that get at least 4 yds or more on first attempts usually win the game. But are there additional analytics on who wins based on how many times a team achieves 4 yds or more on first attempts and also what if both teams are achieving 4 yds or more, who wins then? Thanks Steve

    • Hey Steve,

      I haven’t done any such work on 4 yards on first down, so I can’t answer your questions.

      Can you leave a link to the study on getting 4 yards on first down? Not something that I did.


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