Miami had high hopes for the 2018 season last year. They had surged in two years under Mark Richt, and the markets pegged them for 9.5 wins.
The analytics were more cautious about the Hurricanes. At The Power Rank, I make preseason rankings based on past team performance, turnovers and returning starters.
Before last season, Miami ranked on 17th by my numbers, much lower than the 8th in the preseason AP poll. My analytics predicted 8.2 wins, below the market total of 9.5.
Turnovers were a big reason for the bearish predictions of my model. Miami had a +13 turnover differential in 2017, as they celebrated with the turnover chain after every take away.
However, turnover differential tends to regress to zero from year to year. My model considered this in ranking Miami outside the top 10.
In 2018, Miami finished the regular season 7-5. While quarterback play hurt the Hurricanes the most, they also had a -1 turnover margin.
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